What We’re Watching – America submits to Israel

Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.

In this second Geopolitics-focused roundup, we take a closer look at the meeting between US president Trump met Israeli prime minister Netanyahu at the White House.

In the 3W assessment, Netanyahu got everything he wanted from Trump. No US pressure on Israel to live up to its commitments in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria or elsewhere. But US confirmation that it agrees with Israel as far as Gaza and Iran are concerned. In other words, America submitted to Israel – again.

Furthermore, we look at:

• The alleged drone attack on Russian president Putin; where 3W explains why this confirms our thesis that there is no ceasefire on the horizon
• The latest step up the escalatory ladder in Venezuela, as the US struck an on-land port facility
• The confirmation that the US is lying when is says it is attacking in Nigeria to “defend Christians”
• The developing conflict between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over Yemen

Geopolitics

Yesterday, US president Trump met Israeli prime minister Netanyahu at the White House. At 3W we explained why we expected Netanyahu to “sway” Trump and make the plans made in Tel Aviv leading the US – Israel Alliance again. Based on the information coming out following the meeting, it appears our 3W assessment correctly forecasted what would happen.

As to Palestine, in the 3W assessment, Netanyahu dodged the subject. Regarding Gaza, Netanyahu agreed to move toward the second phase of the Gaza deal, writes Axios. 3W notes this is meaningless since Israel has not even abided by the terms of the first phase of the deal. And, the second phase of the deal appears dead for the moment. Trump may have prepared his “governing council” for Gaza, but he has not been able to bring together the “stabilization force” that is to disarm Hamas on behalf of the US – Israel Alliance. Without this pillar of the second phase of the plan, there cannot be any progress. So it is easy for Netanyahu to say “yes, yes, we will support” because there will not be much to support. In addition, speaking to reporters after meeting Netanyahu, Trump said it will be “very, very bad for them”, meaning Hamas, if Hamas does not disarm voluntarily, writes The National. In the 3W assessment, this is exactly what Netanyahu wants at this stage, as it means all attention is focused on what the Palestinians need to do according to the ceasefire deal. This means Israel can do whatever it wants to do, ignore all its commitments, because the mental state of the US is such that if then Hamas in response refuses to abide by its side of the deal, the US will blame Hamas and pressure it, ignoring Israel. The end result will then be US support for a new war against the Palestinians of Gaza – which is what Netanyahu really wants to achieve.

Next, Trump turned to the subject of the West Bank. Trump and his top advisers asked Netanyahu to change Israel’s policies regarding the occupied territory, writes Axios. Over the past three years, Netanyahu’s government has actively pushed policies that have weakened the Palestinian Authority and starved it of funds, dramatically expended settlements, legalized outposts, forcibly displaced Palestinian communities and taken many more steps toward de-facto annexation. The White House thinks a violent escalation in the West Bank would undermine efforts to implement the Gaza peace agreement and prevent the expansion of the Abraham Accords before the end of Trump’s term. Trump therefore asked Netanyahu to avoid provocative steps and “calm things down”. As to how Netanyahu responded to this request, during the press conference after the meeting Trump said, “I wouldn’t say we agree on the West Bank 100%, but we will come to a conclusion on the West Bank”. In the 3W assessment this means Netanyahu again politely listened but committed to nothing concrete. The subject is not Netanyahu’s priority and as such he does not want to be dragged into it at this stage. The best way to achieve this is by offering vague commitments of support. Then, with the Trump team appeased, Netanyahu can change the subject of discussion to his preferred topic.

This preferred topic is Iran. During the meeting, Netanyahu shared his “concerns” about Iran and Hezbollah rebuilding their military capabilities, particularly on long-range missiles, writes Axios. It appears Netanyahu provided Trump and his advisors with Israeli intelligence that is supposed to prove the Iranians have restarted their weapons programs, including the nuclear weapons program that Iran always denied existed. Axios writes that while speaking to reporters Trump said, “I hear that Iran is trying to build up again, and if they are we’re going to have to knock them down. … If they are, we’re going to have no choice but very quickly to eradicate that buildup. The consequences will be very powerful. Maybe more powerful than the last time.” When asked if the US would support an Israeli military strike on Iran’s missile program, Trump said: “If they will continue with the missiles, yes. The nuclear? Fast. One will be, yes, absolutely. The other was, we’ll do it immediately.” Our 3W assessment of these comments is that, again, Netanyahu has been able to influence the mindset of Trump on the subject of Iran.

As to Ukraine, Russian president Vladimir Putin called US president Trump on Monday — a day after the two spoke ahead of Trump’s meeting with Zelinskiy — and complained that Ukraine conducted a drone attack targeting one of his official residences, writes Axios. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov later said that Russian air defenses destroyed 91 long-range drones heading for the Dolgiye Borody residence in the Novgorod region, located between Moscow and St. Petersburg. Putin told Trump that Russia would revise its negotiating position based on the attack. Thereafter, Putin told his army to press on with a campaign to take full control of the Zaporizhian region in southern Ukraine, writes Reuters. In the 3W view, the events confirm our assessment from yesterday that the peace negotiations are completely stuck (largely due to US diplomatic incompetence). If the drone attack did not really happen, and Russia only made it up, then clearly it is looking for an excuse to keep the war going. If the drone attack did happen as Russia claims, then clearly Ukraine is looking for an excuse to keep the war going. A peace agreement requires both sides to desire peace so much that they are willing to accept painful compromises. Whatever did or did not happen, at least one of the two sides currently lacks this desire.

As to Venezuela, the US took another step up the escalatory ladder yesterday b striking an on-land facility. After striking a 30^th vessel offshore Venezuela, which brought the total number of confirmed kills to 107, writes The Associated Press, US president Trump said that the latest US strike hit a port facility in Venezuela that was used by the drug runners, writes Axios.

Yesterday 3W reported on another escalation of the US global military campaign designed to pressure China, as we explained that the US strikes in Nigeria are most likely part of a plan to bring the world’s main sources of crude oil supply under tighter US control. Axios has looked in more detail at the official justification for the US military operation, which is that “Muslim terrorists are killing Christians”, and concludes the same as 3W did yesterday: this is nonsense. Christians aren’t disproportionate targets of violence in Nigeria. Both Christians and Muslims have faced violence in targeted attacks across Nigeria, and a “significant portion of the violence” is conflict over land that is mischaracterized as religious persecution. Violence specifically targeting Christians accounts for only 5% of reported civilian targeting events,

Then on to another new conflict in the making. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are getting closer to conflict over Yemen. Yesterday, Saudi Arabia bombed Yemen’s port city of Mukalla on Tuesday over what it described as a shipment of weapons for a separatist force there that arrived from the United Arab Emirates, writes The Associated Press. The head of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, Rashad al-Alimi, also cancelled a defence pact with the UAE and accused the UAE in a televised speech of fuelling internal strife in Yemen writes Reuters. Saudi Arabia itself issued a formal statement saying the United Arab Emirates must withdraw its forces from Yemen and halt support for armed groups operating in the war-torn country, writes Bloomberg.

3W provides context to enable you to make sense of this development. Both Saudi and the UAE has been supporting groups inside Yemen that oppose the Houthi’s. Saudi in particular supports the Presidential Leadership Council, which officially at least is the official successer to the government of re-unified Yemen, that was originally led by Ali Abdullah Saleh and after his death by Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. The Houthis ended this government’s control over northern and western Yemen. In the area that remains under the control of this Presidential Leadership Council, the UAE has been supporting a group named the Southern Transitional Council. This Council is pushing for a secession of southern Yemen, to  effectively restore the North Yemen and South Yemen divide that was in place until 1990. Saudi Arabia opposes this division of Yemen and the UAE supports it.