What We’re Watching – Geopolitics reshaping the world

Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.

This will likely be our last update for 2025 and while business around the world slows down for the end of year break, developments concerning the current geopolitical hot-spots (Gaza, Iran, Ukraine) continue to come quick, while new geopolitical hot-spots develop (Nigeria, Taiwan).

As we approach 2026, geopolitics is now firmly in the driving seat for global affairs. The era of Globalization, when business drove  global issues, is now truly and firmly over.

Geopolitics

On Monday Israeli prime minister Netanyahu will meet US president Trump, writes Axios. Among the subjects to be discussed is Gaza, it says. Trump and his team want to unveil a Palestinian technocratic government and International Stabilization Force for Gaza as soon as possible, and potentially even convene the Trump-led Board of Peace at the World Economic Forum in Davos later in January. But Netanyahu is more eager to restart the war against Gaza. It is clear to the Americans, writes Axios, that Israel’s actions in Gaza over recent weeks have been designed to block progress in executing the agreed peace plan. For example, The National writes that since the ceasefire started, Israel has implemented a “yellow line” inside Gaza to demarcate a new border for the territory. The line runs the length of the narrow coastal strip and leaves Israel in control of the eastern, northernmost and southernmost areas of the Palestinian territory. Israel has used local militias to expel the Palestinians from these areas – effectively creating the “depopulated buffer zone” that is also seeking in southern Lebanon and south-wester Syria, 3W notes. 3W further notes that one would expect the US, as the superpower, to pressure Israel, as the dependent ally, to abide by the agreed upon plan. But events over the past two years have made clear that this is not the dynamic between the US and Israel. More often than not, disagreements between the US and Israel have resulted in Israel convincing the superpower of its perspective, thereby making the superpower follow its plan, rather than the other way round. In addition, based on the US flipflopping on Ukraine in 2025, we at 3W have developed the view that Trump is most swayed by the last person he speaks to. As such, we do not rule out the possibility that Netanyahu will convince Trump that the originally agreed plan for Gaza should be dropped, and replaced by a new plan made in Tel Aviv. A plan, one should expect, that does not include an “international stabilization force”, let alone one that includes soldiers from Muslim countries, and that prioritizes “defeating Hamas” over stability.

Israel’s actions in Gaza over recent weeks have been designed to block progress in executing the agreed peace plan

Also on the agenda for the Trump – Netanyahu meeting, already the fifth between the two in the US since Trump started his second term in office, are the next steps in the US – Israel Alliance War against Iran, writes Ha’aretz. The general assumption is that Israel will push America to restart the war. That is also the view also inside Iran. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Saturday that his country is in a full-scale war with the US, Israel and Europe, writes The Associated Press. “We are in a full-scale war with the U.S., Israel and Europe; they don’t want our country to remain stable,” he said. Pezeshkian said the West’s war against Iran is “more complicated and more difficult” compared to the 1980-1988 war with Iraq that left more than 1 million casualties on both sides.

The Iranian stance is defensive, focused on survival, writes Dawn. It is neither the “state nearing collapse” nor the “confident power determined to remake the region” that it is made out to be in western media narratives. Rather, it is a self-interested state manoeuvring from a strategic corner while hedging aggressively against internal and external threats, Dawn says.  While the sanctions have weakened it economically, and the US – Israel Alliance War over the summer weakened it militarily, the war did strengthen it politically. Iranians widely viewed the war as a foreign assault launched as the state pursued diplomacy, and this perception generated a striking degree of unity in an otherwise polarized society. This internal state-of-affairs has important geopolitical implications, in the view of DAWN. Iran’s leadership, for all its internal contradictions, is operating from a survival mindset. If the US approaches negotiations by demanding that Iran abandon the very behaviours it views as essential to survival—its deterrence posture, regional relationships and aspects of its political structure—while refusing to consider necessary American policy shifts, cooperation will become impossible.

As to Ukraine, its president Zelenskiyy met US president Trump at the White House on Sunday, and both left the meeting very optimistic about the “prospect for peace”, writes The Associated Press. 3W thinks this is all delusional. The peace plan the US wrote with Russia is diametrically opposed to the peace plan the US thereafter wrote with Ukraine. The whole process did not bring both sides closer together, but just highlighted again what the key points of contention are between both sides. Russia does not want Ukraine to become a potential launching pad for an attack against it, and therefore wants to incorporate the east of Ukraine into Russia, and prevent the permanent establishment of NATO or other foreign troops inside Ukraine. As documented in the US – Ukraine peace plan published by Reuters, Ukraine, meanwhile, wants “security guarantees” through the permanent establishment of NATO or other foreign troops inside Ukraine.

As to the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, after the ceasefire negotiated in a hurry by the US failed about two weeks ago, last week 3W noted that China was dispatching its diplomats in order to arrange a new ceasefire. On Saturday, then, the two countries announced a temporary ceasefire, writes Bloomberg. On Sunday, China brought together the top diplomats from Thailand and Cambodia, in order to settle the conflict more permanently, writes The Associated Press. Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow and Cambodian Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn met in China’s southwestern Yunnan province for talks mediated by their Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. Bloomberg writes the Chinese used the event to take “thinly veiled swipes” at the US. Foreign Minister Wang Yi, president Xi Jinping’s top diplomat contrasted China’s approach to the conflict with Trump’s economic threats, saying “China’s efforts to promote peace and dialog never impose on others or overstep its bounds”.

As to Taiwan, China’s military moved army, naval, air force and artillery units around Taiwan on Monday for its “Justice Mission 2025” drills, writes Nikkei Asia. The drills began 11 days after the U.S. announced $11.1 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, the largest ever weapons package for the island, drawing a protest from China’s defense ministry and warnings the military would “take forceful measures” in response. China’s military said it had deployed fighter jets, bombers, unmanned aerial vehicles, and long-range rockets, and would practice striking mobile land-based targets while simulating a coordinated assault on the island from multiple directions. While the PLA practiced port blockades around Taiwan during war games last year, this time the PLA for the first time publicly stated that drills around the island are also aimed at “deterrence” of outside military intervention.

Meanwhile, in its efforts to maintain global hegemony, the US appears to have opened another front in Africa. US president Trump on Thursday said the US launched a “powerful and deadly” strike against forces of the Islamic State group in Nigeria, after spending weeks accusing the West African country’s government of failing to rein in the targeting of Christians, writes The Associated Press. A Defense Department official said the US worked with the Nigeria government to carry out the strikes in the northwestern province of Sokoto State. Trump said the airstrikes were launched against IS militants “who have been targeting and viciously killing, primarily, innocent Christians.” Nigeria’s government has previously said in response to Trump’s criticisms that people of all faiths, not just Christians, have suffered attacks at the hands of extremist groups, an assessment shared by security analysts who focus on the region, writes AP. 3W notes that similar to Venezuela, the US justification for its military actions is clearly constructed, fake. Just as when it comes to Venezuela, there is, therefore, another, real reason for this US operation, that the US does not want to disclose publicly as that would be an embarrassment. At this stage one can only speculate what this real reason might be, due to a lack of information. 3W notes, however, that while Venezuela has the largest oil reserves of southern America, Nigeria has traditionally been the largest oil exporter from sub-Saharan Africa. We speculate, therefore, that behind the scenes the US is working to establish more direct control over the world’s main suppliers of crude oil to global markets, which continues to be a major “weak point” for China. Beyond the US itself these centers of supply are the countries of the Arabian Gulf and Northern Africa, Russia, Iran, Venezuela and Nigeria.