What We’re Watching – Does the US actually know what it is doing?

Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W),  our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.

In this roundup, we take a closer look at the key question in geopolitics these days: Does the US actually know what it is doing in the arena that is geopolitics?

The question is triggered because in today’s update 3W reviews Israel’s new plan for the West Bank and its continued breaking of the Lebanon ceasefire, which will get US support despite being crimes against international law. But also we review the US flipflopping on Ukraine; the US’s actions in the Caribbean against Venezuela, whereby it is essentially creating its own “Ukraine”; and its picking of fights with its longstanding allies in Europe, over Greenland and EU internal policy.

Justifications for these odd US actions and can be construed. But all these actions come with very clear and major negative consequences for US interests, both in the hard power and soft power realms. This raises the fundamental question. Is there a grand US plan to brilliant that the rest of the world cannot understand it? Or are we just witnessing incompetence in action, and consequently the gradual degradation of US foreign power?

Furthermore, we look at:

• The negotiations between Thailand and Cambodia to end the fighting along their border
• China’s retaliation against the EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles
• EU care sales, which show that the electrification of transport is not failing or even disappointing

Geopolitics

As to Palestine, this week, Israel’s security cabinet approved 19 more settlements, bringing the number granted permission in the past three years to about 70, writes The National. Condemnation of the moves is almost universal, because they represent cries against international law, with the US being the lone voice in support of Tel Aviv.

As to Lebanon, an Israeli drone strike killed three people travelling in a car near Lebanon’s southern port city of Sidon on Monday, writes The National. The Israeli military said it struck Hezbollah operatives in the attack – despite it having signed a ceasefire agreement, which Hezbollah has abided by, 3W notes.

Nevertheless, Egypt has a signed a $35 billion gas deal with Israel, writes Reuters. The gas will be supplied to Egypt from Israel’s offshore Leviathan natural gas field. Egypt called its move “purely economic”, but 3W notes a clear geopolitical implicates: Egypt will become dependent on Israel for its energy needs. This is so obvious, that the Egyptian cannot be truly considered commercial. It is a conscious act of submission in the geopolitical arena.

As to Ukraine, a few weeks after agreeing a 28-point peace plan with Russia, the US has now agreed a different, 20-point peace plan with Ukraine, writes Bloomberg. The US – Ukraine plan ignores the Russian red lines completely, 3W notes. Under the plan, the Russian speaking areas of Ukraine would become “special zones” from which the Russian army would need to withdraw. In addition, Ukraine would maintain a standing army of 800,00 men, and receive security guarantees from the US. 3W notes the plan signals another flipflop in the US position. The US joined the Russian perspective after the Alaska Summit. Then flipflopped to the European position by adding sanctions on Russia, over which it burned its relationship with India, pushing it firmer into the BRICS camp. Then the US flipflopped again, through agreeing the 28-point plan with Russia. And now another flipflop via this 20-point peace plan. This is not the behavior of a great power that knows what it is doing.

As to Venezuela, US president Trump has ordered the US military to impose a complete “quarantine” of Venezuelan oil, writes Reuters. The move comes shortly after Trump urged Venezuelan president Maduro to flee his nation. 3W notes that the illegality of the US actions is clear. The US is using its military to force a political leadership change upon a sovereign state, demanding that this new government aligns itself politically with US foreign policy. Many analysts have realized this and spoken about it. What to our surprise remains largely undiscussed is the fact that this US behaviour is the same as the behaviour of Russia regarding Ukraine – which the western world is “united against”.

As to the Thailand – Cambodia conflict, China’s special envoy for Asian affairs visited Cambodia’s capital Phnom Penh for talks with the country’s leadership, writes Nikkei Asia. The visit came ahead of direct talks between Thailand and Cambodia on the sidelines of a special ASEAN foreign ministers meeting in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, writes Nikkei Asia separately. As of Wednesday, the direct talks had not yet resulted in an agreement about a new ceasefire.

As to Greenland, US president Trump has appointed a special envoy to Greenland, writes the BBC. In response to a question from the BBC about the new role of Jeff Landry, the Republican governor of Louisiana, Trump said the US needed Greenland for “national protection” and that “we have to have it”. Governor Landry said in a post on X that it was an honour to serve in a “volunteer position to make Greenland a part of the US”. Denmark’s Foreign Minister, Lars Lokke Rasmussen, described the appointment of Landry as “deeply upsetting” and warned Washington to respect Danish sovereignty.

As to broader US – European relations, the US has imposed sanctions on five European over their role in EU regulation of the digital media sector, writes The Associated Press. The five Europeans now banned from entering the US are Thierry Breton, a businessman and former French finance minister; Imran Ahmed, chief executive of the Center for Countering Digital Hate; Josephine Ballon and Anna-Lena von Hodenberg, leaders of HateAid, a German organization; and Clare Melford, who runs the Global Disinformation Index. The Trump administration accuses the five of pressuring tech firms to censor or suppress American views. Yet, 3W notes, the EU keeps talking of the US as a “friend”… Reuters, in the 3W view, places this US move in the right context. The bans mark a fresh US escalation against Europe, it says, and comes weeks after the US National Security Strategy document warned Europe faced “civilizational erasure” and must course-correct if it is to remain a reliable US ally.

Lastly, US president Trump has suddenly recalled 30 US ambassadors from their posts, writes The Associated Press. Africa is the continent most affected by the removals, with ambassadors from 13 countries being removed: Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Gabon, Ivory Coast, Madagascar, Mauritius, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Somalia and Uganda. Second is Asia, with ambassadorial changes coming to six countries: Fiji, Laos, the Marshall Islands, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines and Vietnam affected. Four countries in Europe (Armenia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Slovakia) are affected; as are two each in the Middle East (Algeria and Egypt); South and Central Asia (Nepal and Sri Lanka); and the Western Hemisphere (Guatemala and Suriname). It is unclear at this stage if the decision is a “personal attack” on specific individuals of the US foreign policy establishment, or whether it signals a specific US foreign policy change.

Macroeconomics

China will impose provisional duties on dairy products imported from the European Union, in retaliation against the EU’s electric vehicle tariffs on China, writes Reuters. The duties are to be collected from Tuesday and will range from 21.9% to 42.7%, although most companies will pay just under 30%. They target unsweetened milk and cream and fresh and processed cheeses. China imported $589 million of dairy products covered by the current investigation in 2024.

Energy

The US Coast Guard tried to intercept two more Venezuelan crude oil related- ships over the weekend, writes Reuters. One of them is an empty ship under U.S. sanctions, and the other is an unsanctioned, fully loaded tanker bound for China. China’s Foreign Ministry said on Monday the recent U.S. interceptions were a serious violation of international law, which, 3W notes, ius a simple statement of fact.

Other

Since there is a lot of talk of the electrification of transport supposedly failing, Reuters writes that in November total EU car sales rose 2.1% to almost 900,000 vehicles. But, registrations of battery electric, hybrid electric and plug-in hybrid cars were up 44.1%, 38.4% and 4.2%, respectively, to account collectively for 65.6% of the bloc’s registrations, up from 56% in August 2024. Overall, electric vehicles made up 60% of EU car sales until November 2025, compared to 50% last year. What in the 3W view is really going on, is that overall car sales are under the pressure due to a weaking economy. Within this challenged automarket, electric vehicles are actually the bright spot showing the biggest growth. Bloomberg notes that new, lower-priced battery models like Citroën’s ë-C3 and Renault SA’s R5 E-Tech are boosting demand, and that the EV gains offset declines in registrations of gasoline-powered vehicles across the region.