Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In this roundup, we take a closer look at the next phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement.
In the next phase, Hamas is to disarm, Israel to withdraw, and international forces to enter to ensure security and provide governance. Netanyahu says Israel is now ready for it, and Hamas says it is too.
But using Hezbollah’s experience in Lebanon as an example, 3W warns – again – that the whole plan is a US – Israel Alliance trap for Hamas and the people of Palestine.
Furthermore, we look at:
- The killing of Yasser Abu Shabab, the Bedouin tribal leader who led an Israeli-backed militia in Gaza
- Why Hezbollah is not happy about the meeting last week between Israeli and Lebanese civilian officials
- Israel’s ambition to establish a depopulated buffer zone inside Syria
- The restoration of diplomatic ties between Israel and Qatar
- The deadlock in the Ukraine ceasefire negotiations
- Russian president Putin’s visit to Indian prime minister Modi
- The continuing tension between Thailand and Cambodia
- China’s record, $1 trillion exports year to date November
- The pushback against the EU plan to ban internal combustion engine vehicles from 2035 onward
Geopolitics
As to Gaza, Yasser Abu Shabab, the Bedouin tribal leader who led an Israeli-backed militia in Gaza, has been killed, writes The Guardian. Abu Shabab was the commander of the Popular Forces, the biggest and best-armed of several militia that emerged in Gaza during the later stages of the two-year conflict. All benefited from Israeli support as part of a strategy of arming proxies to degrade Hamas and control the population. Abu Shabab is thought to have died from wounds sustained in a violent clash with powerful and well-armed local families, according to local media and sources in Gaza. 3W speculates this probably indicates the sentiment among the people of Gaza following 2 years of genocide. They are not in a mood of surrender.
Meanwhile, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel and Hamas are “very shortly expected to move into the second phase of the ceasefire,” writes The Associated Press. Following Hamas’ return of the bodies of the deceased prisoners of war, the second phase, which addresses the disarming of Hamas and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, could begin as soon as the end of the month, according to Netanyahu. The ceasefire’s second stage also includes the deployment of an international force to secure Gaza and forming a temporary Palestinian government to run day-to-day affairs under the supervision of an international board led by US president Trump.
Hamas is also ready to enter the second phase, and has said it is willing to discuss “freezing or storing” its arsenal of weapons as part of its ceasefire with Israel, Bassem Naim, a member of Hamas’ decision-making political bureau, told The Associated Press. Naim said Hamas retains its “right to resist,” but said the group is ready to lay down its arms as part of a process aimed at leading to the establishment of a Palestinian state.
3W is of the opinion that Hamas is being set up by the US – Israel Alliance in the same way that Hezbollah was. Notice the similarities in the Lebanon and Gaza ceasefire proposals. In both cases, the resistance has to disarm, and Israel is to end its fighting and withdraw. In both cases, an independent party is to oversee the ceasefire agreement, and to manage the disarmament. In the case of Lebanon the US and France were to ensure both sides live up to the agreement, and in the case of Gaza it is to be an international army. This indicates both plans flowed from essentially the same pen. Since it is known neither Hezbollah nor Hamas were involved in the drafting of the ceasefire plan, it is clear the pen was in the hands of the Alliance. Then look at how the ceasefire plan was used in Lebanon against Hezbollah. Israel continued to attack it, strengthened its military positions in the south of Lebanon in order to cement its presence, and attacked UNIFIL in an attempt to chase it way such that the Israeli crimes could be hidden. The guaranteeing parties did nothing against any of these violations of the ceasefire deal. In fact, behind the scenes the US worked with the non-Hezbollah linked political elements in Lebanon to organize a political process that would ensure Hezbollah loses its political role, while the Lebanese army disarmed it. Once completed this will leave Hezbollah defeated.
Now think about what the Alliance is likely to do during the “second phase” in Gaza. During the first phase already Israeli was given free reign to continue its attacks, and to cement its position inside the territory, establishing a new border well beyond what was in the agreement. Clearly, an international security force under the control of the Alliance, directed from an Alliance base inside Israel, will not focus on protecting the rights of the people of Gaza. It will be tasked with taken the next step towards the Alliance ambition, which is forcefully disarm Hamas and securing for Israel a military position inside Gaza that gives it even greater dominance over the people in the area. Our last 3W point is, if we can see this coming, so can the elites in the Arab and Muslim countries, who are far better informed than we are. So why do they go along with this plan, even supporting it?
As to Lebanon, Hezbollah is seeing what is happening around it, and it is not happy about it. After another year of being attacked by Israel on a daily basis, and squeezed politically by US diplomatic maneuvers, it noted that last week there was a meeting between Israeli and Lebanese civilian officials. “The aggression did not end,” Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem warned Lebanese authorities in response, writes The National. “You’re granting Israel concessions that produce no results.” He reiterated Hezbollah’s support for Lebanon’s choice of “a path of diplomacy to end the [Israeli] aggression”, but set clear limits on the group’s co-operation regarding disarmament north of the Litani River. He warned that Israel is not only targeting Hezbollah’s weapons but is also “paving the way for a gradual occupation”. “Lebanon is facing a dangerous Israeli expansionist aggression that must be confronted by all means and methods,” he said. Hezbollah’s position is that it does not oppose negotiations with Israel, but that these talks must be about ending the Israeli occupation of Lebanese land and stopping the Israeli aggression. 3W notes that while Hezbollah’s is correct in its analysis as to what the Alliance aims to do in Lebanon, and as to the danger in the Lebanese politicians’ support for the Alliance’s plans, it has been tricked into its current position from which it is essentially powerless to do anything about it.
As to Syria, Israel is seeking to establish a security zone in the 400 square kilometres its military has seized in southern Syria since the fall of the Assad regime a year ago, disregarding pressure from the US to establish peaceful ties with the country’s new government, regional security sources told The National. Israel’s actions violate a 1974 armistice that led to the creation of a UN-controlled buffer zone between Syria and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, seized during the 1967 Arab-Israeli War. Israel has said that its new territorial acquisitions in Syria since the fall of Al Assad are aimed at ensuring its security by enlarging the buffer zone. “Damascus is again in their sights,” a regional security official said. “They don’t want to take it, but they want to extend their military advantage and keep Al Shara weak.” 3W notes that this part of the Israeli ambition was discussed at length in our analysis of the US – Israel Alliance plan for a “New Levant”. Israel’s ambitions in Lebanon and Gaza are similar – displacement of the local population to establish an Israeli controlled buffer zone inside the territory of its neighbour states.
As to Qatar, the US, Israel, and Qatar held a trilateral meeting in New York on Sunday in order to restore ties, writes Axios. White House special envoy Steve Witkoff hosted the meeting. Mossad spy chief David Barnea represented Israel.
Beyond the Middle East, US president Donald Trump on Sunday claimed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “isn’t ready” to sign off on peace proposal aimed, writes The Associated Press. “Russia is, I believe, fine with it, but I’m not sure that Zelenskyy’s fine with it. His people love it. But he isn’t ready,” Trump said.
Ukrainian president Zelenskiy is set to meet with British, French and German leaders in London on Monday, writes Reuters, hoping they can compensate for what 3W will be an inevitable loss of US support if he doesn’t sign the deal currently on the table. Of course, practically speaking, the Europeans cannot provide Ukraine the support it needs. So if the US has really made up its mind, this is just an exercise in delaying the inevitable.
With negotiations ongoing, Russian president Putin personally travelled to India last week to meet its prime minister Modi in New Delhi. Puring Putin’s first trip to the Indian capital in four years, the two leaders pledged to increase bilateral trade to $100bn by 2030 from a record $69bn in the year ending in March 2025, writes The Financial Times. Modi did not mention the role Russian crude oil is to play in getting to this number, but he did stress collaboration between the two countries in civil nuclear technology. Furthermore, on the defense front, the two countries agreed that Russia will transfer military technology to India, to encourage joint manufacturing in India of parts and components for defence equipment.
In Asia, the tension between Thailand and Cambodia remain, writes The Associated Press. Both sides accused the other of breaking a ceasefire that halted fighting earlier this year. The Thai army said Cambodian fire on Sunday injured two Thai soldiers, and that Thai troops retaliated resulting in an exchange of fire that lasted around 20 minutes. Cambodia said that the Thai side fired first and that its own troops did not retaliate. Thailand on Monday then launched airstrikes along the disputed border with Cambodia. In the 3W view, the events indicate clearly that Thailand is the aggressive party. And this, we note ties in with our thesis that the US is using Thailand to pressure Cambodia, to enable the US to develop closer relations with key Cambodian officials, and thereby move Cambodia out of the China camp into the US camp.
Macroeconomics
In midst of a global trade war, during the first 11 months of 2025 China’s trade surplus in dollar terms was $1.076tn, according to data released on Monday by the country’s customs administration, writes The Financial Times. China’s trade surplus in goods for the full year in 2024 was just shy of $1tn. China’s exports to the US have cratered in recent months, and fell 29 per cent last month year on year. But shipments to other regions, especially south-east Asia, have grown rapidly. Economists believe some of these shipments to south-east Asia, which added 8 per cent last month, are later trans-shipped to the US.
Other
Six European Union leaders have asked the European Commission to propose softening the bloc’s vehicle emission rules to halt a de-facto ban on combustion engines planned by the middle of the next decade, writes Bloomberg. Prime ministers including Meloni and Poland’s Donald Tusk demanded that an upcoming revision of EU rules for new cars allow plug-in hybrids, range extenders and fuel-cell technology even after 2035, according to a letter to commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The letter was also signed by Slovakia’s Robert Fico and Hungary’s Viktor Orban, as well as Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala and Bulgarian Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov.