Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In this roundup, we take a closer look at Gaza, where Amnesty International says that more than a month after the ceasefire has been announced, and all surviving Israeli hostages have been released, Israeli authorities were still committing genocide against Palestinians “by continuing to deliberately inflict conditions of life calculated to bring about their physical destruction, without signalling any change in their intent.
Furthermore, we look at:
- How the US – Israel Alliance continues its genocide against Gaza, despite the official ceasefire
- The increase in Zionist settler terrorism against the Palestinians of the West Bank
- Russia’s taking of the key strategic town of Pokrovsk; against the backdrop of Putin meeting Witkoff and Kushner to discuss the peace plan
- America’s “K-shaped economy”
- The EU plan to mandate “made in Europe” targets of up to 70 per cent, in order to support European industry
- Iraq’s specific request to US oil companies to take over Lukoil’s 75% share in the super-giant West Qurna 2 oilfield, with an estimated 14 billion barrels of reserves
- China’s increased buying of Iranian crude oil; although its total crude oil purchases is expected to disappoint in 2025 and 2026
- The EU’s decision to ban the import of Russian gas as of 2027
- The Japanese backing, for a French-Belgian project, in the US, to produce “synthetic gas” through combining hydrogen and CO2
- The outlook for the global plastic waste problem
Geopolitics
Gaza, Amnesty International says that more than a month after the ceasefire has been announced, and all surviving Israeli hostages have been released, Israeli authorities were still committing genocide against Palestinians “by continuing to deliberately inflict conditions of life calculated to bring about their physical destruction, without signaling any change in their intent”, writes Arab News. According to figures from Gaza’s Government Media Office, Israel violated the ceasefire at least 591 times between Oct. 10 and Nov. 29, including through airstrikes, artillery fire and direct shootings. Those attacks killed at least 356 Palestinians and wounded 909. In one of the latest incidents, Palestinian photojournalist Mohammad Wadi was killed along with two other people in an Israeli strike, east of the Al-Bureij refugee camp in central Gaza, while documenting the situation on the ground.
As to the West Bank, during October’s olive harvest, Zionist settlers across the territory launched an average of eight attacks on Palestinian olive growers daily, according to the United Nations humanitarian office, writes The Associated Press. The most since the UN began collecting data in 2006. The attacks continued in November, with the UN recording at least 136 more by November 24. Settlers burned cars, desecrated mosques, ransacked industrial plants and destroyed cropland. In a particularly gruesome attack, a settler beat a Palestinian woman, Afaf Abu Alia, a grandmother, unconscious with a spiky club. Israeli authorities have done little beyond issuing occasional condemnations of the violence. In the rare cases Israeli authorities undertake action, 94% of the resulting investigation files opened by Israeli police end without an indictment. Since 2005, just 3% of those investigations led to convictions.
As to Syria, yesterday 3W reported on Israel’s latest military attack on southern Syria. According to Axios and The National, the Israeli operation upset the US. The US is investing a lot of political capital in Ahmed Al Shar’a as Syria’s new president. “We are doing everything within our power to make sure the government of Syria continues to do what was intended, which is substantial, in order to build a true and prosperous country,” US president Trump wrote on social media, and he US fears the Israeli military operations inside Syria threaten the stability of his rule, writes The National. The US is talking to Israel to convince to change its policy, arguing that the current course will make it impossible for Syria to sign an Abraham Accord with Israel, writes Axios. Trump also wrote that Syrian president Al Shar’a was working “diligently” to ensure that Syria and Israel “have a long and prosperous relationship together”. 3W remains skeptical of the narrative that “Israel operates independently” and that the “US is pressuring Israel to align its plans with the US” – that is why we consistently speak of the US – Israel Alliance, because we see the two entities as “joined at the hip”. The two militaries are closely integrated, not only because the US supplies the weapons but also because US military officials are “engrained” in Israeli military decision-making processes, as a result of which the two function is separate arms of a single body. Our assessment is, therefore, that the Alliance is using Israel as the stick, to keep Al Shar’a working with his US advisors, who represent the carrot.
As to Ukraine, according to Russia, Pokrovsk has become Krasnoarmeysk again. The Associated Press writes that Russia’s general staff chief, general Valery Gerasimov, formally reported to Russian president Putin that Russian troops have taken full control of the town, which was named Krasnoarmeysk during Soviet times. Ukraine did not officially respond to the Russian claim, which in the 3W view is a strong indication the report is factually correct.
Meanwhile, as to the peace negotiations over Ukraine, Russian president Vladimir Putin told US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner that the EU proposed adjustments to the Ukraine peace plan are unacceptable, writes The National. Putin also accused the European countries of trying to sabotage the efforts to end the nearly four-year war. “They don’t have a peace agenda, they’re on the side of the war,” he said of the Europeans before talks in the Kremlin, Putin pushed back strongly against what he sees as European efforts to keep the war going. “If Europe suddenly wants to start a war with us and starts it, a situation could very quickly arise in which there would be no one left for us to negotiate with,” he said, adding that he did not want war with Europe. 3W notes that on Monday, based on recent developments, we concluded that a certain party was seeking to sabotage the peace negotiations. Clearly, Putin is of the opinion it is the Europeans who are this party.
After his strong words for the Europeans, Putin met with Witkoff and Kushner for five hours, writes Axios. Putin’s foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov told reporters after the meeting concluded that it had been “useful, constructive and meaningful.” Ushakov said the U.S. side presented proposals on the issue of territorial control but that no compromise has been reached yet. Ushakov also said Putin asked Witkoff and Kushner to convey a number of messages to Trump. “We agreed with our American colleagues not to disclose the substance of the negotiations that took place. The discussion was confidential,” Ushakov said.
Nevertheless, the Europeans are pushing ahead with their plan for Ukraine. The European Commission is expected to release a legislative proposal that would authorize the bloc to use up to €210 billion ($244 billion) in immobilized Russian central bank assets to back loans for Ukraine as it fights off Russia’s onslaught, writes Bloomberg. But Belgium, anxious about legal ramifications for the country given most of the funds are housed at the Brussels-based Euroclear, is pushing back, threatening to block the EU effort.
As to the Pakistan – Afghanistan tensions, the two countries held peace talks in Saudi Arabia and agreed to maintain a ceasefire, writes Reuters.
Germany, Lieutenant General Christian Freuding, who took charge of the German army in October, has publicly expressed the view that the military partnership between Germany and the US is starting to unravel. In an interview with The Atlantic on Germany’s plans for re-armament, he says the Pentagon has “cut off contact” between American defence officials and their German counterparts. The development comes as Germany plans to devote more than 460 billion euros, or $538 billion, to upgrade its army over the next four years. The United States has traditionally treated Germany as one of its most important European allies, notes The Times in response. It is thought to have about 35,000 soldiers stationed at German bases such as Ramstein and Stuttgart, which serve as staging posts for American operations across Africa and the Middle East.
But while the US pulls back, Israel steps forward. The country is about to complete the sale of its Arrow 3 missile defense system to Germany, writes Bloomberg. The agreement is valued at more than 3.6 billion euros ($4.2 billion), including launch systems, munitions and radar, the German defense ministry said at the time. The first battery of the system is scheduled to be deployed at the Holzdorf Air Base about 120 kilometers south of Berlin, with further sites to follow in the north-west and south of the country.
Macroeconomics
Analysts of America’s economy are more and more realizing that it is now a two-tier economy. The name chosen to describe it is “K-shaped economy”, writes The Associated Press. Simply put, the upper part of the K refers to higher-income Americans seeing their incomes and wealth rise while the bottom part points to lower-income households struggling with weaker income gains and steep prices. This explains why headline US economic growth numbers appear solid, yet hiring is sluggish and the unemployment rate has ticked up. Why overall consumer spending is rising, but Americans are less confident. Why AI-related data center construction is soaring while factories are laying off workers and home sales are weak. And why the stock market hovers near record highs even as wage growth is slowing.
Brussels is considering setting “made in Europe” targets of up to 70 per cent for the content of certain products such as cars, as it pushes to prioritise domestic goods and cut reliance on China, writes The Financial Times. The policy called the Industrial Accelerator Act could cost EU companies more than €10bn annually by pushing them to buy more expensive European components. An EU official said that the scope of the legislation would mirror China’s key industrial policies “Made in China 2025” and “China Standards 2035”, which pushed foreign companies towards joint ventures with Chinese businesses in order to access its market. Three EU officials said that local content thresholds of up to 70 per cent were being discussed as part of the industrial policy plan but that the targets would vary, depending on how critical the sector was and how heavy the dependency was. 3W notes that plan will worsen the European economy in two ways. Firstly, it will force European companies to buy more expensive inputs, worsening their competitive position in the global marketplace. Secondly, the EU’s answer to any economic issue is always “force”. The EU never asks itself what caused the issue, and what it would need to change to see the issue resolve itself organically. The result is a macroeconomic environment in the EU becomes ever more regulated and controlled centrally, which over time only worsens the EU’s industry competitiveness compared to those of China and the US.
Energy
Iraq is under US pressure to kick Russian oil company Lukoil out of the country. Lukoil holds a 75 per cent stake in the super-giant West Qurna 2 oilfield, with an estimated 14 billion barrels of reserves. The National writes that Iraq has asked US oil companies to take over from Lukoil. In a statement, Iraq’s Oil Ministry said the “transferring management of the West Qurna 2 field to an American oil company would benefit mutual interests, strengthen global market stability and maintain Iraq’s oil production”.
Meanwhile, China’s independent oil refiners are boosting their intake of Iranian crude from onshore tanks and ships idling at sea, writes Bloomberg. China’s private refiners, known as teapots, dominate the nation’s purchases of crude from Iran and Russia, which are cheaper than other grades, but had to scale back buying during the fourth quarter due to exhausted allocations and the fallout from sanctions. As a result, on sea inventories of sanctioned oil had been on the increase. Iranian crude held on tankers at sea climbed to more than 54 million barrels this week, the highest in about two and a half years. China has no issued new import quotas, which the Chinese refiners are taking advantage of to buy the Russian and Iranian oil at a significant discount of up to $8 per barrel.
The overall scale of China’s crude oil purchases is expected to disappoint in 2025 and 2026, writes The Financial Times based on a Trafigura assessment. “Next year we have one of the lowest growth rates in China in quite some time,” said Trafigura’s chief economist Saad Rahim at the Financial Times Asia Commodities Summit in Singapore. “For the first time, India’s underlying demand will be larger than China’s.” Rahim said China’s consumption of road fuels, for a long time the driver of its demand for crude, was now clearly weakening, as adoption of electric cars and, increasingly, electric trucks grows rapidly. Rahim said the remaining “pockets of strength” in Chinese demand were in its huge petrochemicals industry and in jet fuel, with its aviation sector still expanding. Overall, he expected China’s demand for oil to grow by less than 200,000 b/d next year, adding: “We used to be at 1mn or 1.5mn type numbers.”
Lastly, the EU has agreed a full ban on imports of Russian gas by 2027, writes The Financial Times. All imports of Russian gas will be banned from autumn 2027, with earlier phaseout dates for liquefied natural gas and short-term supply contracts.
Technology
Energy companies Osaka Gas and Toho Gas, as well as trading house Itochu, have signed a joint development and operating agreement that grants the Japanese companies a combined 33.3% stake in the Live Oak project, a $1 billion synthetic gas project led by French energy major TotalEnergies and Belgium-headquartered renewable energy company Tree Energy Solutions (TES), writes Nikkei Asia. The Live Oak project looks to produce synthetic gas, or e-methane, by combining hydrogen made using renewable energy and biogenic CO2. Synthetic gas is chemically identical to conventional natural gas and emits CO2 when burned, but is considered greener, as it captures and uses the CO2 that would otherwise have been released into the atmosphere. The project is being developed in the US state of Nebraska. The state has a large ethanol industry that allows for a stable supply of biogenic CO2, as ethanol, when made from feed crops such as corn and sugarcane, generates CO2 during the fermentation process. The Japanese companies are expected to offtake most of the gas produced at the plant. The Live Oak project was originally announced in 2023 by TotalEnergies and TES, who said at the time that they were looking to produce 100,000 to 200,000 metric tons of synthetic gas per year, one of the largest projects of its kind. But that has now been scaled back to 75,000 tons per year. A final investment decision has also been pushed back to 2027 from the initial plan to reach it in 2024. A recent analysis by energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said that current costs estimated for e-methane production “remain four times higher than long term LNG prices, posing a significant barrier to wide-scale adoption.”
Other
Global plastic pollution will hit 280 million metric tons per year by 2040, says Breaking the Plastic Wave 2025, a report by the Pew Charitable Trusts with ICF International, writes Bloomberg. Global production of new plastic is set to increase by 52%, twice as much as waste-management systems. In Pew’s ideal scenario, subsidies for plastic production would be eliminated and waste collection would be greatly expanded. If that happened, nearly 100% of consumer packaging could be collected and recycling rates could double.
Note – With the the anniversary of the fall of the al- Assad regime this week, the geopolity will be publishing a podcast – The Battle for Syria Isn’t Over, on Friday 5th December and a deep dive into the geopolitics of Syria on Monday 8th December