What We’re Watching – The Ukraine peace negotiations

Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.

In this roundup, we take a closer look at the Ukraine peace negotiations.

Ukrainian officials met with their US counterpart in the US over the weekend, after meeting in Geneva, Switzerland, last week.

All indications are, in the 3W view, that the US wants Ukraine to accept the transfer of territories to Russia.

There also clear indications, however, that powerful forces are working to prevent progress in the negotiations, as evidenced by last week’s leak of sensitive telephone conversation between US and Russian officials, and this weekend’s Ukrainian attacks against Russian targets.

Furthermore, we look at:

• The new milestone in Gaza, where following an Israeli strike on two brothers aged 8 and 11, the total number of Palestinians killed directly by Israeli military operations has now surpassed 70,000
• The latest the Israeli military into Syria
• The US declared closure of Venezuela’s air space
• Opec+’s decision to keep oil production levels unchanged
• India’s purchase of crude oil from Guyana, to replace Russian crude oil

Geopolitics

As to Gaza, the number of Palestinians killed directly by Israeli military operations in the area has surpassed 70,000, writes The Associated Press. At least 352 Palestinians have been killed across the territory since the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas took effect on October 10. In one of the latest incidents, Israeli fire killed two Palestinian children in the territory’s south. The two were brothers, aged 8 and 11, and they died when an Israeli drone struck close to a school sheltering displaced people in the town of Beni Suhaila. Last week, 3W noted that in Lebanon too the “ceasefire agreement” is totally one-sided, as the US – Israel Alliance does not feel bound in any way by the promises it makes on paper. The current situation in Gaza should not be seen as “isolated”, therefore. Rather, it reflects the “norm” of Alliance behaviour in the international arena. 3W reiterates this as a warning to any country or group considering agreeing a ceasefire or peace treaty with the Alliance.

As to Syria, the Israeli military launched another military operation on Syrian soil last Friday, writes Bloomberg. Israeli troops moved near the village of Beit Jinn, about 5 km (3.1 miles) from the Israel-Syria frontier, to “apprehend suspects” belonging to the Jaama Islamiya group. Syria’s foreign ministry condemned Israeli strikes as a “war crime,” saying the incursion included attacks on residents and property. Syrian media said 13 people were killed. The United Nations criticized the Israeli assault, calling it “a grave and unacceptable violation of Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, further destabilizing an already fragile environment.” The Israeli army said six of its soldiers were injured in the operation, three of them “severely”.

As to Ukraine, diplomacy continues on the basis of the 28-point peace proposal agreed between the US and Russia. Ukraine sent a delegation, headed by national security chief Rustem Umerov, to the US to “swiftly and substantively work out the steps needed to end the war”, writes The Associated Press. Thereafter, US delegation headed by special envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to travel to Moscow for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the second half of next week. In the 3W assessment, Ukraine is under severe pressure from the US to accept the deal currently on the table. This, in our view, is evidenced by the “sudden” corruption investigation involving Zelenskiy’s chief of staff, Andrii Yermak, as reported on by Reuters. Yermak was also the country’s lead negotiator in talks with the US, and has resigned since the start of the investigation, which effectively means the US is selecting the person it speaks to on the Ukrainian side. Rustem Umerov is probably seen by the US as more willing to go along with the US proposals.

The Financial Times writes that the first meetings between the Ukrainian delegation and the US went well. The talks, which included US secretary of state Marco Rubio, Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and the US president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, followed discussions in Geneva last week where the two sides reported progress towards a peace plan with Russia. Rubio said after the talks on Sunday: “Much work remains. But today was again a very productive and useful session, where I think additional progress was made.” Rustem Umerov, who led the Ukrainian negotiators, described the meeting as “difficult but productive”, adding “significant progress” had been made “on the path to establishing a just peace”.

The talks focused on where the de facto border with Russia would be drawn under a peace deal, writes Axios. As part of the peace plan, the US wants Ukraine to hand over territory to convince Russia to make peace, but that would be a painful and politically explosive concession.

In the background, Ukraine has escalated its attacks on Russian assets. It attacked the Black Sea terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), writes Reuters. The CPC, which includes Russian, Kazakh and US shareholders, said it had halted operations after a mooring at its Russian terminal on the Black Sea was significantly damaged by a Ukrainian naval drone attack. Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry said the drone attacks were the third such series of attacks on what it called “an exclusively civilian facility whose operation is safeguarded by norms of international law.” 3W notes this is an escalation over and above previous Ukrainian attacks as this time the assets targeted, while inside Russian territory, were only partly Russian owned and majority non-Russian owned. Ukraine also used naval drones to attack two Russian oil carriers, writes The Associated Press. 3W notes that in this case, the Ukrainian attack took place not in a Russian port or Russian territorial waters, but off the coast of Turkey inside Turkey’s exclusive economic zone. These Ukrainian military operations risk dragging other regional players into the conflict, which would complicate the peace negotiations. In our 3W view, therefore, these escalatory attacks were undertaken in order to throw a wrench in the negotiations. This aligns with the “leak” of the phone conversations between the US and Russia chief negotiators on the peace proposal, which 3W wrote about last week, as this indicated that Russia played an important role in designing the current peace proposal. This information hinders peace talks progress, as Russia has been made a pariah state in western narratives, and as such this leak too appeared designed to prevent progress on the 28-point peace proposal. In conclusion, therefore, there appear to be powerful forces who object to the current Trump policy on Ukraine.

As to Venezuela, another escalation in the US pressure on the government of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, US president Trump on Saturday said that the airspace “above and surrounding” Venezuela should be considered as “closed in its entirety”, writes The Associated Press. It is not clear whether the move is designed to worsen the economic pressure on Venezuela, or the prelude to a military attack on the country. In the 3W view, most likely it is the prior, as Trump had a phone call with Maduro on Sunday, writes Reuters. If the decision had been made to remove Maduro by military force, there would have been no phone call at this stage, 3W believes.

Energy

Opec+ agreed to keep oil production levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026 due to seasonal weak demand, writes The National. The moves comes after Opec+ added some 2.9 million barrels per day additionally into the market since April 2025. It now still has about 3.24 million bpd of output cuts in place, representing around 3% of global demand, writes Reuters.

Two supertankers, the Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) Cobalt Nova and Olympic Lion, have begun hauling crude from Guyana to India, as refiners in the South Asian nation snap up alternatives to sanctioned Russian crude, writes Bloomberg. The journey of around 11,000 miles (17,700 kilometers) for a combined 4 million barrels of crude highlights the lengths to which Indian refiners are going to source non-Russian barrels after the US stepped up sanctions.