Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In this roundup, we take a closer look at “peace deals”, US-style.
Over the past year since the signing of the Lebanon ceasefire deal, the US–Israel Alliance has violated its terms 10,000 times, says the United Nations. As if to commemorate the event, the Alliance then destroyed 3 floors of a Beiruti apartment building to assassinate Hezbollah’s chief-of-staff (alongside dozens of others, killed and wounded).
3W notes that this makes clear that “ceasefire deals” mean nothing to the US–Israel Alliance. It only abides by the terms it signed on to if its forced to, or if it considers this in its own interest. In any other instance, it will simply break its promises – and manufacture an excuse to justify it.
Hamas and Iran should take note, as should any other group or country considering an “Abraham Accord”. You will be used and abused as long as you have value, after which the Accord will be broken and you will be destroyed.
Furthermore, we look at:
- How the US plans to “use and abuse” the Saudis
- The evidence that the US – Russia deal over Ukraine is indeed a total Russian victory; and the European effort to block the progress of the deal
- The coming “next phase” of the US operation against the government of president Maduro, which is likely to involve covert operations on the ground in Venezuela
- China’s strategic outreach to Germany
- How the US Shale industry is getting reading to surprise the world of oil production forecasters again
- Reliance’s decision to stop importing Russian crude oil for the export focused units of its Jamnagar refinery, in response to US and EU sanction
- China’s rapid progress in the development and deployment of electric trucks; where 3W explains why this will have massive implications for global oil demand, and consequently the geopolitical role of crude oil and the nations that produce it
- The death of climate politics at COP30 in Brazil
Geopolitics
As to Lebanon, Israeli forces have committed thousands of violations of Lebanese air and land space over the past year since the implementation of Israel’s ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah, writes Thruthout based on UN peacekeeper data. According to the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, Israeli forces are responsible for over 7,500 air violations and nearly 2,500 ground violations in the past year. This totals nearly 10,000 violations in less than a year of the ceasefire, which took effect on November 27, 2024. According to the UN, Israeli forces have carried out more than 500 airstrikes in Lebanon over the first 10 months of ceasefire, killing at least 108 civilians, including 16 children. The UN has also recorded 19 abductions of Lebanese civilians by Israeli soldiers. 3W notes that this makes clear that “ceasefire deals” mean nothing to the US–Israel Alliance. It only abides by the terms it signed on to, if its forced to, or if it considers this in its own interest. In any other instance, it will simply break its promises – and manufacture an excuse to justify it. Iran should take note, as should any other country considering an “Abraham Accord”. You will be used and abused as long as you have value, after which the Accord will be broken and you will be destroyed.
As if to prove the point that it does not feel constrained by any promises or signed agreement, on Sunday Israel killed Hezbollah’s chief of staff in strike on an apartment building in a busy area of Beirut, writes The National. The Hezbollah official was named by the Israeli army as Haitham Ali Tabatabai, deputy to Secretary General Naim Qassem. In total at least five people were dead and 28 injured in the attack, which took out at least three floors of the building.
As to US–Saudi relations, writing for Bloomberg, James Stavridis former US Navy admiral and supreme allied commander of NATO, sets out the strategic rationale behind the US embrace of the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, and where the US is now likely to push him. First, to fully support Trump’s 20-point Mideast peace plan that includes rebuilding Gaza and putting a pan-Arab peacekeeping force on the ground, in order “to fully pacify the Gaza Strip”. Second, normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which can be achieved Stavridis says by just offering a pathway to a Palestinian State many years out, without ever really having the intention to act upon this promise. Third, incorporation of the Saudi’s into the US–Israel Military Alliance, in order to keep Iran isolated and side lined. Fourth, close cooperation on energy. 3W suspects the US is seeking to corner the global crude oil market, something we will speak about in more detail at a later date. For this too, the Saudis are needed. In conclusion, as 3W assessed when the details of the US–Saudi strategic alignment agreement were first released last week, the Saudis are to be “used and abused” exactly as we write above regarding Lebanon.
As to Ukraine, in our dedicated analysis of the Ukraine peace deal agreed between the US and Russia, on Saturday, we concluded the deal represents a total victory for Russia. Further supporting that assessment The Guardian notes that key elements of the text appear to be originally written in Russian. The third point of the 28-point plan reads: “It is expected that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries and Nato will not expand further.” “It is expected” is a clunky passive construction in English. The Russian version – ожидается or ozhidayetsya – makes more sense and is a familiar verb form. Other Russianisms that appear to have crept into the text include неоднозначности (ambiguities) and “закрепить” (to enshrine).
Meanwhile, the US has told Nato allies they will push Ukrainian president Zelensky into agreeing to the peace deal over the coming days, under the threat that if Kyiv does not sign, it will face a much worse deal in future, writes The Guardian. The US army secretary, Dan Driscoll, briefed ambassadors from Nato nations at a meeting in Kyiv late on Friday, after talks with Zelenskyy and taking a phone call from the White House. “No deal is perfect, but it must be done sooner rather than later,” he told them, according to one person who was present. The mood in the room was sombre, with several European ambassadors questioning the content of the deal and the way in which the US had conducted the negotiations with Russia without keeping allies informed. 3W notes that the Europeans keep forgetting they are not US allies – they are vassals.
The Europeans are nevertheless trying to make the US change course. The so-called European E3 powers, Great Britain, France and Germany, have drafted a counter-proposal and submitted it to the US, writes Reuters. The document takes the U.S. proposal as its basis, but goes through point by point with suggested deletions or changes. Most notably, it proposes that Ukraine receive a security guarantee from the United States similar to NATO’s Article 5 clause (the US – Russia agreement does not specify how Ukraine’s security will be guaranteed, notes 3W). It also says “negotiations on territorial swaps will start from the Line of Contact”, rather than pre-determining that certain areas should be recognised as “de facto Russian”, as the U.S. plan suggests. 3W notes the Europeans continue to live in a fantasy world where all they want is what matters. Have they considered the fact that what they want is not acceptable to Russia? Why would Russia agree to what the Europeans want? The fact of the matter is, the Europeans can do not nothing to prevent Russia from achieving a comprehensive military victory in Ukraine, only the US can. That is why Russia is talking to the US and not to the Europeans. And that is why the Europeans’ “wants” don’t matter”, if they do not bring some offers to Russia to the table at the same time.
As to Venezuela, The United States is poised to launch a new phase of Venezuela-related operations in the coming days, writes Reuters, which does not know exactly what is planned. Covert operations, on the ground in Venezuela, are likely be the first part of the new action against the government of president Maduro.
Macroeconomics
China’s Premier Li Qiang pitched closer collaboration to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in new energy, smart manufacturing, biomedicine and intelligent driving during a meeting on Sunday on the sidelines of the G20 summit, writes Reuters. Li said he “hoped Germany would maintain a rational and pragmatic policy toward China, eliminate interference and pressure, focus on shared interests, and consolidate the foundation for cooperation,” a state media readout released late on Sunday read. 3W notes that Germany desperately needs a strategic alliance with China, but we expect it will continue to blindly follow US narratives and “advice”, as it did regarding Ukraine, even though this is what brough it to the “edge of disaster” that it currently finds itself at.
Energy
Even after years of technological breakthroughs, the shale industry still leaves most of the oil underground, writes Javier Blas of Bloomberg. At best, American drillers siphon away 15% to 10% of what’s potentially available, the rest has remained thousands of feet under the surface. Until now, that is, Blas writes. The next phase of the revolution — call it shale 4.0 — is an engineering arms race to improve the so-called recovery factor. Increasing the ratio even by a single percentage point is a prize worth billions of dollars over the lifetime of thousands of wells in Texas, New Mexico, North Dakota and Colorado. American wildcatters spent much of the 1990s and early 2000s experimenting with ways to exploit a new source of petroleum: shale formations. To the untrained eye, the geology resembles tiramisu, with thin layers of productive but hard-to-crack rock sandwiched between non-productive ones. By the mid-2000s, engineers found a way to tap the riches — drilling vertical wells several miles deep into the tiramisu, and then turning the bit around by 90 degrees to proceed horizontally, nowadays as far as 22,000 feet (6,705 meters). Those L-shaped wells reach deep into the productive stratum. Then comes hydraulic fracturing, or fracking — water, sand and chemicals blasted deep underground to free oil from the hard-to-crack shale rock. After fracking the rock, the sand injected underground props up the cracks, hence it’s known as a proppant. Keeping those cracks open is crucial, but pushing the proppant all the way to the last crevices is difficult as they are heavier than the water used to carry them. The other issue is the natural friction that stops the hydrocarbons from reaching the well. The solution there is to use what’s called surfacants that reduce tensions between molecules. Exxon Mobil is doing a lot of work on proppants; Chevron is focusing on surfactants. Everyone in the shale industry is trying their own approach.
Reliance Industries, owned by billionaire Mukesh Ambani, has stopped importing Russian crude oil for its export-only refining unit at Jamnagar in the western state of Gujarat, writes The BBC. The move aims to comply with an EU ban on fuel imports made from Russian oil through third countries, which takes effect next year. “This transition has been completed ahead of schedule to ensure full compliance with product-import restrictions coming into force on 21 January 2026,” Reliance said in a statement. India’s purchases of discounted Russian oil shot up from barely 2.5% of imports before the war began in 2022, to around 35.8% in 2024-25. Reliance is India’s largest importer of Russian oil, and accounts for around 50% of Russian oil flows into the country. 3W notes that Reliance achieved its target in the exact week that the US released the information that it has agreed a peace deal for Ukraine with Russia under which the sanctions on Russian oil will be lifted…
ExxonMobil announced plans in 2022 to build at its refining and chemical complex in Baytown, Texas, a hydrogen facility with a capacity of producing 1 billion cubic feet per day of so-called blue hydrogen. But now, citing lack of demand, the company has decided to shelve the plan, writes Reuters. Potential customers have stayed on the sidelines due to the higher cost of using hydrogen, Woods said, adding that an industrial slowdown and economic uncertainty in Europe have further crimped demand. Exxon can restart the project when there is enough market demand, Woods added, though it is unclear when that could be.
Technology
China is replacing its diesel trucks with electric models faster than expected, potentially reshaping global fuel demand and the future of heavy transport, writes The Associated Press. In 2020, nearly all new trucks in China ran on diesel. By the first half of 2025, battery-powered trucks accounted for 22% of new heavy truck sales, up from 9.2% in the same period in 2024. As a consequence, diesel consumption in China fell to 3.9 million barrels per day in June 2024, down 11% year-on-year. Forecasts predict electric truck will reach nearly 46% of new sales this year and 60% next year. While electric trucks are two to three times more expensive than diesel ones and cost roughly 18% more than LNG trucks, their higher energy efficiency and lower costs can save owners an estimated 10% to 26% over the vehicle’s lifetime, according to research by Chinese scientists. After proving the concept domestically, China is now turning its sights to the global electric truck market. 3W notes that if successful, and we see no reason to believe China will not be successful other than geopolitics, this will have massive implications for global oil demand, and consequently the geopolitical role of crude oil and the nations that produce it.
Other
At COP30 in Brazil, the countries meeting for two weeks have agreed a “voluntary agreement to begin discussions on a roadmap to an eventual phase-out of fossil fuels”, writes The Guardian. This language, 3W notes, is the climate equivalent of the promise by the US – Israel Alliance that after Hamas surrenders unconditionally, there might potentially be, at some stage in the future, a conversation to reflect on the possibility of eventually starting negotiations to agree on a timeline for talks to evaluate the conceivability of a Palestinian State. In our view, the COP process is dead. The GHG emissions subject is no longer among the top priorities of the countries that really matter in the world. Geopolitics, expressed by war, industrial policy and trade economics, now reign the day.