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Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In this roundup, we take a closer look at the UN Security Council’s approval of the Trump Peace Plan for Gaza.
3W analyses the UN resolution and explains why this is a pure colonial-imperial plan, designed to further the interests of the US–Israel Alliance, at the expense of the people of Palestine. And thus why, by extension, the support from the Muslim and Arab countries for this plan practically means they are allowing themselves to be used to do the dirty work for the Alliance in Gaza.
Furthermore, we look at:
- Israel’s construction of a concrete wall inside Lebanese territory, to make its occupation of southern Lebanon permanent
- The details of how the US is using the Thailand – Cambodia border tensions to win Cambodian officials over to its side
- The view of Google CEO Sundar Pichai that AI is in “bubble” territory
- The effect of US sanctions on China’s purchases of Russian and Iranian oil
- TotalEnergies’ and CNPCs efforts to develop a global electricity business next to their oil and gas businesses
Geopolitics
Gaza – the Trump Peace Plan for Gaza was approved by the United Nations on Monday, writes The Associated Press. The US resolution that passed the UN Security Council authorizes an international stabilization force to provide security in Gaza, approves a transitional authority to be overseen by President Trump, and envisions a possible future path to an independent Palestinian state. Russia abstained from voting, along with China.
In the 3W view, which we previously explained, the Trump Peace Plan for Gaza is less about peace and more about enabling a next phase in the bigger US–Israel Alliance plan for a “New Levant”. It enables the Alliance to refocus is resources, and we note in this regard that in parallel to the Gaza ceasefire Israel has stepped up its activities in southern Lebanon – more on that below.
In addition, 3W wishes to highlight again the utterly colonial-imperial nature of this UN resolution. Foreign soldiers in Gaza, that are to be commanded by the US from a military base inside Israel, is more about releasing the Israeli army from a difficult task than it is about protecting the right and interests of the people of Gaza. The resolution is explicit about this as it calls for the “stabilization force” to ensure “the process of demilitarizing the Gaza Strip” and “the permanent decommissioning of weapons from non-state armed groups.” It also says that the Israeli army will only withdraw from Gaza if the stabilization force succeeds in its stated mission.
The same goes for the “Board of Peace” that will now govern Gaza. The US, one of the two legs of the Alliance that is responsible for the genocide in Gaza, will decide who is on it. One should not expect the right and interests of the people of Gaza to feature in any way in the decision making process around it.
Lastly, the language on a Palestinian State is so weak, it is quite clearly designed to just placate the leaders of the Muslim and Arab countries whose soldiers are to make up to stabilization force, i.e. give them something they can use in front of their people to justify them doing the dirty work for the Alliance in Gaza, without offending Israel. The resolution “envisions a possible future path”, which practically means absolutely nothing will be done to secure the rights and interests of the people of Palestine. They will continue to be seen and treated as “a problem”, because in the colonial mindset from which this “peace plan” sprang forth, they are “untermenschen” (subhuman) who simply have to make way for the Zionists “chosen people”.
As to how much of this envisioned, possible, future path to a Palestinian State will translate into practical reality, Israeli settlers on Monday rampaged through a Palestinian village in the occupied West Bank, torching homes and cars, writes The Associated Press, which calls the latest in a string of settler attacks in recent weeks. The UN Humanitarian office reported that October saw the highest number of Israeli settler attacks since tracking began with more than 260 incidents causing injuries or property damage. That’s on top of 2,660 settler attacks documented this year through the end of September. Six hundred ninety Palestinians have been killed in this.
Lebanon – Israeli forces have begun constructing a wall deep inside southern Lebanon, writes The New Arab. The construction of the massive concrete wall is taking place two kilometres into Lebanese territory, facing the border towns of Maroun al-Ras and Aitaroun. Israel’s military was meant to withdraw from Lebanon after last year’s devastating war with Hezbollah, but has instead maintained forces in several border posts beyond the border and is refusing to withdraw. 3W notes this makes quite clear that Israel plans to make its occupation of southern Lebanon permanent.
Thailand and Cambodia – Last week 3W explained how the US war to further its geopolitical interests. In that analysis, we used the tensions between Thailand and Cambodia as an example, and argued that the US is using these tensions to pull Cambodia away from China and into the camp of “US allies”. Confirmation came this week as Nikkei Asia writes that the US sees Cambodia’s prime minister Hun Manet as potential partner in the Indo-Pacific. Hun Manet is the son of longtime Cambodian leader Hun Sen. He is a graduate of the US Military Academy at West Point and New York University, and was handed the prime minister position in 2023 by his father. Through Hun manet, the US now sees an opportunity to reduce the influence of China in Cambodia.
Macroeconomics
In an interview with The BBC, Google CEO Sundar Pichai says he believes there is a bubble in AI. According to Pichai, while the growth of artificial intelligence (AI) investment had been an “extraordinary moment”, there was some “irrationality” in the current AI boom. Asked whether Google would be immune to the impact of the AI bubble bursting, Pichai said,
“I think no company is going to be immune, including us”. In comments echoing those made by US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan in 1996, warning of “irrational exuberance” in the market well ahead of the dotcom crash, Pichai said the industry can “overshoot” in investment cycles like this. “We can look back at the internet right now. There was clearly a lot of excess investment, but none of us would question whether the internet was profound,” he said. “I expect AI to be the same. So I think it’s both rational and there are elements of irrationality through a moment like this.”
Energy
Chinese imports of seaborne Russian crude may drop by 500,000 to 800,000 barrels a day this month, or as much as two-thirds from normal levels, writes Bloomberg. Inflows from Iran, meanwhile, could fall by 200,000 to 400,000 barrels a day, or as much as 30%. Causing the decline is the US sanctions on Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as on China’s import Rizhao and Dongjiakou terminals, which handle crude imports from Iran. While some Chinese refiners will likely adopt a “wait-and-see approach” to Russian purchases, to see how strictly the sanctions are enforced, 3W expects others will jump in again once the current situation pushes prices down.
France’s TotalEnergies is betting big on power and renewables, positioning itself to ride the global electricity demand wave and offer investors a clear alternative to rivals doubling down on oil and gas, writes Reuters. TotalEnergies’ strategy, first outlined in 2020, is to strike a balance between growth in core oil and gas operations, and diversification into power and renewables. TotalEnergies aims to generate 100 to 120 terawatt hours of total electricity globally by 2030, compared with 41 TWh in 2024, mainly by expanding solar and wind power. It aims to grow its gross installed renewables power generation three-fold from current levels to 100 GW by the end of the decade. The strategy was on full display on Monday when TotalEnergies announced the acquisition of a 50% stake in Czech energy company EPH’s Western European power generation platform in a 5.1 billion euro ($5.92 billion) all-stock transaction.
Over in China, the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) intends to develop in a similar manner. It inaugurated its power unit, China Petroleum Electric Energy Company, in Beijing on Monday, writes Reuters. The company is expected to serve as a hub for the group’s new energy business, a vehicle for its market-oriented power transition and a platform to optimise power production, supply and sales.