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In this roundup, we take a closer look at establishment of the military force that will manage security in Gaza. It is likely to be led by Egypt, with other contributors to the force including Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates. Israel has final say in who will and who will not join the force. A US-led military cell known as the Civil-Military Coordination Centre (CMCC) will be based in the southern Israeli town of Kiryat Gat in order to coordinate the military operation.
3W draws a number of important conclusions from all this, with the most important being that any nation which joins the “stabilization force” is in reality providing active support for the genocidal policy of the US – Israel Alliance.
Furthermore, we look at:
- The deployment of the USS Gerald R Ford battle carrier group to the Caribbean, to further increase pressure on the Venezuelan government of president Maduro
- The escalation of western pressure on Russia, via the sanctioning of Russia’s largest oil companies; and Russia’s response
- The peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia, where 3W explains why we believe the US is actively instigation regional conflicts, think also Ukraine, Pakistan – India and also Pakistan–Afghanistan
- The progress towards a face-to-face meeting between US president Trump and Chinese president Xi
- The state of the trade negotiations between the US and India, which seems to make clear that India continues to refuse the US demand that it ends its purchases of Russian crude oil
- The view that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the petrochemical industry will not be driving oil demand
Geopolitics
Gaza – It is “déjà vu” all over again, notes 3W. We recall how things developed after the US–Israel Alliance signed a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah complied with the deal, while the US – Israel Alliance ignored it. Southern Lebanon was again attacked by Israel from the air on Friday, killing two people, writes The National. Now in Gaza, Israel’s military attacked central Gaza on the pretext that fighters were readying to attack Israel forces, writes Reuters. Witnesses said separately that Israeli tanks had shelled eastern areas of Gaza City, the Gaza Strip’s biggest urban area.
The US is organizing establishment of a military force that will manage security in Gaza. US secretary of state Marco Rubio said it was a requirement that Israel is comfortable with the nationality of the multinational force, writes The Guardian. The force is likely to be led by Egypt. Other contributors to the force include Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates. Türkiye has said it is willing to offer troops, but Israel has let it be known that it disapproves of Turkish troops taking part in the force. A US-led military cell known as the Civil-Military Coordination Centre (CMCC) will be based in the southern Israeli town of Kiryat Gat in order to coordinate the military operation. Rubio also said there could be no role for the UN’s Palestinian relief works agency, Unrwa, in Gaza due to the agency being a “subsidiary of Hamas”.
3W notes a number of points. First, with “command and control” being firmly in the hands of the US–Israel Alliance, the “stabilization force” will be nothing other than a vehicle for the Alliance to pursue its objectives. This, 3W notes in turn, confirms our original assessment that Trump Peace Plan is not humanitarian but geopolitical, designed to enable the Alliance to achieve its objectives not only in Gaza, but across the Levant. Second, the information that Israel has the final say in who will join the force confirms our original 3W assessment that the current ceasefire deal is not the result of the US “pressuring Israel,” for in reality it is giving Israel the final decision on all matters of importance. Recall that the US allowed Netanyahu to change the proposed deal last minute, even after Egypt and Qatar had taken it to Hamas. Third, it can even be argued that the US is following Israeli thinking, as the US clearly is continuing its habit of adopting Israeli positions on key subjects for discussion. Fourth and last, the above points make clear that any nation which joins the “stabilization force” is in reality providing active support for the genocidal policy of the US–Israel Alliance.
Ukraine – Last week the United States and Europe surprised everyone by announcing sweeping new sanctions on Russia’s oil industry, directly targeting Russia’s two biggest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. The move cuts the companies off from much of the global financial system, and enables the West to “legally” impose penalties on those countries which keep buying Russian oil, i.e. China and India, writes The New York Times.
While the West is increasing pressure on Russia, not only by adding sanctions but also by maintaining the threat of delivering tomahawks to the Ukrainian army, Russia is positioning in response. It announced it has tested a new nuclear-capable and powered cruise missile, the Burevestnik, writes The Associated Press. Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s chief of general staff, said the Burevestnik, or Storm Petrel in Russian, spent 15 hours in the air, traveling 14,000 kilometers (8,700 miles), adding “that’s not the limit.” 3W adds to the AP, the nuclear drive of the Burevestnik means that it can remain air-born for extended periods of time, like a nuclear submarine can remain underwater almost permanently. This means it can attack without the enemy having the chance to notice a launch and execute a counter-attack. In other words, conceptually the Burevestnik gives Russia the ability to deliver a nuclear strike without running the risk of being destroyed in a counter-strike.
Venezuela – US president Trump has ordered the battle carrier group around USS Gerald R Ford, the world’s largest warship, to move to the Caribbean, writes the BBC. Trump has repeatedly raised the possibility of what he called “land action” in Venezuela, saying earlier this week that the US is “looking at land now” after getting “the sea very well under control”. The carrier’s deployment would provide the resources to start conducting strikes against targets on the ground. “This is about regime change. They’re probably not going to invade, the hope is this is about signalling,” Dr Christopher Sabatini, a senior fellow for Latin America at the Chatham House think tank, told the BBC. He argued the military build-up was intended to “strike fear” into the hearts of the Venezuelan military and Maduro’s inner circle so that they move against him.
Thailand–Cambodia – Regarding the conflict from earlier this year, during his current visit to Malaysia, US president Trump oversaw the two countries ceasefire agreement, writes The Associated Press. Thailand will release Cambodian prisoners and Cambodia will begin withdrawing heavy artillery as part of the first phase of the deal. Regional observers will monitor the situation to ensure fighting doesn’t restart. Trump claims his threats of economic pressure prodded the two nations to halt skirmishes along their disputed border earlier this year. Trump also signed economic agreements with Cambodia, Thailand and Malaysia, some of them aimed at increasing trade involving critical minerals. 3W notes that in our assessment, the US is using war to further its geopolitical objectives. Ukraine is an example, but so is Thailand – Cambodia. The latter country is close to China, but the war with Thailand gave the US an ability to speak with and influence Cambodia.
A further example of the US “enjoying” regional conflict to further its own objectives, in our 3W assessment, regarding the conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan. In our view the US has an ambition regarding Afghanistan, as it borders China; and an ambition regarding Pakistan as it is a nuclear Muslim state. While in Asia US president Trump also said he will solve the conflict between the two Muslim neighbours “very soon”, writes The Associated Press.
Macroeconomics
Chinese and US negotiators have hammered out a “framework” for the rival powers’ presidents to talk face-to-face in the coming days, writes Nikkei Asia. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters on Sunday that the discussions with a delegation led by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng produced “a very successful framework for the leaders to discuss on Thursday.”
US–India trade deal – Bloomberg notes that while US president Trump is in Malaysia to attend the ASEAN meeting there, Indian president Modi decided not to travel to Kuala Lumpur. US secretary of state Rubio is in Malaysia, and he is scheduled to meet his Indian counterpart, India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. Bloomberg notes there appears to be no truth in Trump’s claim from last week that India has agreed to end its purchases of Russian crude oil, which is one of the major sticking points in the negotiation. New Delhi has said it intends to diversify oil supplies and buy more energy from the US – which are objectives it can achieve without buying less Russian crude oil, 3W notes.
Energy
Paul Hodges of New Normal explains why he does not believe the mantra that “petrochemicals will be driving oil demand growth”. He notes the petrochemical industry is currently in a massive crisis, with capacity utilization well below historical levels around the world. Consequently, the industry’s focus today is on managing shutdowns, rather than growth. Demographic trends, meanwhile, mean that this is unlikely to change significantly over the medium to longer term. Petchems saw fantastic growth during the BabyBoomer-led SuperCycle, says Hodges. This created major demand in all the key application areas – cars, housing and electronics. But now the Boomers have joined the Perennials 55+ cohort. They already own most of what they need. This means that in most parts of the world, demography predicts a flattening or even decline in petchems demand. And, even if petchems demand were somehow to recover, it is unclear this would increase demand for oil. It is, after all, relatively expensive feedstock versus its alternative, ethane. With ethane supply increasing, as a result of the US shale boom and the international majors’ focus on natural gas, an international export business for ethane is developing as well, which will further put downward pressure on the petrochemical induystry’s demand for oil-based feedstocks.