Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (WWW), which is our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy.
Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In this roundup, we take a closer look at the Trump Plan for Gaza. As more details become clear, people on the street in Gaza and analysts across the Middle East are realizing it is very much a one-sided proposal, giving Israel what it wants, at the expense of the interests of the Palestinian people.
Furthermore, we look at:
- How the Trump Tariff War is accelerating efforts by countries around the world to sign trade deals that do not involve the US
- The “retrenchment trend” in the energy industry, where companies are returning to a focus on core oil and gas operations; with Occidental being the most recent to prove the point; and `shell noting this is likely to create an overcapacity situation (at least in LNG)
- China’s effort to attract the technology talent the US is currently chasing away
- How China is outcompeting the world when it comes to the electrification of transport, causing panic among legacy carmakers in the West
Geopolitics
As to Gaza, three Arab officials told The Associated Press that changes had been made in the original ceasefire proposal that Arab and Muslim countries had worked out with Trump – changes in favor of Israel. The depth of the Arab countries’ discontent was not clear, and they have continued to express broad support for the plan. But Qatar has requested further talks over the details of the plan.
On the ground in Gaza the plan was not met with much enthusiasm, writes The Associated Press. “This is not a peace plan. It’s a surrender plan. It returns us to times of colonialism”, said Umm Mohammed, a history teacher who sheltered with her family in Gaza City. Mahmoud Abu Baker, a displaced Palestinian from Rafah, said the proposal favors Israel and implements all its demands without giving concessions. “(The proposal) tells that we, as Palestinians, as Arabs, are not qualified to rule ourselves and that they, the white people, will rule us,” he said.
Meanwhile, experts from across the political spectrum in the Middle East are not optimistic about the official “20 point peace proposal” either, notes The National. The proposal is clear when it comes to Israeli demands – such as the 72-hour deadline for the release of hostages by Hamas – it is intentionally vague when it comes to Palestinian demands, such the reconstruction of Gaza and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the enclave, for which no timeline is provided. The vagueness leaves room for Israeli prime minister Netanyahu to interpret the proposal in surprising ways. Just hours after meeting Trump he said the proposal gives the Israeli army the right to maintain a presence in “most of” Gaza, and reaffirmed his opposition to Palestinian statehood.
in an interview with CNN Hasan Al Hasan of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), one of the foremost analysts of Middle Eastern political affairs, called the ceasefire deal proposal by US president Trump a “poisoned chalice”. The plan is clearly designed to be rejected by Hamas, he says, through keeping the provisions so vague that they can be interpreted in anyway anyone wants – including allowing for an open-ended Israeli military presence in Gaza with the freedom to conduct military operations under the pretext of fighting Hamas, which is how Israeli prime minister Netanyahu sees it. Netanyahu proudly posted a video statement on X, saying, “Now the whole world, including the Arab and Muslim world, is pressuring Hamas to accept the terms that we created together with Trump, to bring back all the hostages — the living and the dead — while the IDF stays in the Strip”.
WWW notes these assessments of the Trump proposal for Gaza aligns with the first and second possible motives of the US – Israel Alliance we discussed in our analysis yesterday. It is all part of the bigger plan to ethnically cleanse Gaza and formalize Israel’s control over it.
Further confirmation of WWW’s initial assessment comes from Reuters, which writes that the proposed deal is a “win-win” for Netanyahu, as it shifts all the pressure onto Hamas while easing international scrutiny of Israel.
According to Axios, however, the US is forcing Israel to accept a Gaza deal it does not want. WWW doesn’t buy this story at all. The best evidence is the information that Israel was allowed to change the proposal on critical points, resulting in a document that gives Israel everything it wants, in explicit and specific language, while giving the Palestinians only vague offers that can easily be sidestepped later. Netanyahu’s enthusiasm for the proposal confirms the WWW assessment, we believe.
Macroeconomics
The Trump Tariff War is accelerating efforts by countries around the world to sign trade deals that do not involve the US, writes Reuters. Since Trump’s re-election last November, the European Union has struck three free trade agreements – with South American bloc Mercosur, Mexico and Indonesia – and has its sights on a fourth, with India, by the end of this year. India and New Zealand revived talks after a decade-long hiatus, while the United Arab Emirates signed three trade agreements in a single day in January. WWW notes that the US plan to intimidate its allies into officially recognizing vassal status vis-a-vis the US always came with the risk that would incentivize countries to gradually move away from the US. That appears to be happening.
Energy
Occidental Petroleum is in talks to sell its OxyChem division in a deal expected to be worth about $10bn, writes The Financial Times. The divestment is part of a larger trend in the oil and gas industry, with companies retrenching back into core oil and gas operations. In Oxy’s case, it’s debt burden following the &55 billion acquisition of Anandarko adds to the reasons for the move.
Javier Blas of Bloomberg also notes that oil and gas companies that once focused on burnishing their ESG credentials are now abandoning those efforts. The ostracization of fossil fuels on ESG grounds is over (except in pockets of Europe), he says. During the second quarter, energy executives mentioned ESG only 755 times in earnings calls, down from a peak of 2,170 times in the first quarter of 2021. The same goes for “emissions”. In the first quarter of 2022, executives use the word a record 1,132 times in calls with analysts and investors, the second quarter this year the count was down more than 80% to just 186 mentions.
Another outcome of the retrenchment is that Shell CEO Wael Sawan is now surprised by the number of new liquefied natural gas projects moving forward, writes Bloomberg. So far this year, a record 55 million tons of annual capacity from the US reached final investment decisions. Global capacity is also set to rise by about 50% by 2030 — the biggest build-out in the industry’s history — which will likely plunge the market into an oversupply.
Meanwhile, the oil price could well drop into the $50s-a-barrel range in the coming quarters, as output expands causing a “punishing oversupply”, according to Macquarie Group, writes Bloomberg. West Texas Intermediate is expected to average about $57 a barrel next year, down from an earlier forecast of about $60. Brent — which was last near $66 — is seen at $57 a barrel in the first quarter of next year, and $59 in the second.
Technology
China is kicking off a new visa program Wednesday to woo foreign professionals specializing in science and technology to work in the country, just as U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration sets higher barriers for companies hiring foreign nationals, writes Nikkei Asia. A new “K visa” category, added to China’s general work visa, aims “to promote exchanges and cooperation between young Chinese and foreign scientific and technological talents.” In a thinly veiled jab at Washington, the Communist Party mouthpiece Global Times said in an editorial on Monday that the new visa “demonstrates China’s openness and confidence … especially at a time when some countries tend to turn inward and reject external cooperation.”
Chinese EVs threaten Japan’s dominance of south-east Asia’s car market, writes The Financial Times. Affordable Chinese electric cars are breaking Japanese automakers’ decades-long grip on south-east Asia, it notes. The market share of Japan’s producers, led by Toyota, Honda and Nissan, has fallen to 62 per cent of car sales in south-east Asia’s six biggest markets in the first half of 2025, down from an average of 77 per cent in the 2010s. The key to Chinese companies’ success is affordable battery EVs. Chinese EV makers are also leveraging their leadership in vehicle software technology, which Japanese legacy carmakers have been slow to develop.
Meanwhile, electric trucks’ penetration rate in China has jumped to about 24 per cent, from as low as 4 per cent two years earlier, with battery giant CATL predicting that half of all new trucks sold in the country will be electric-powered by 2028, writes The Financial Times. This leaves Europe’s truck makers very concerned that they will be outcompeted by China in the electric truck segment. Agustín Delgado, chief technology officer of Spanish energy group Iberdrola said: “What could happen in the end is that trucks coming from China . . . will go down in cost faster than the trucks being built in Europe . . . because they are building much more than us.”
Other
Leaders of developing countries threatened by climate change told rich nations at the most recent United Nations General Assembly that they are falling far short of promises to fund measures to combat rising sea levels, droughts and deforestation, writes Reuters. “It is past time for the rich world to meet its obligations and get money to where it’s needed most,” Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine told the assembly last week. “We’ve heard the promises – but promises don’t reclaim land in atoll nations like mine.” Since the Industrial Revolution, the US has been the largest cumulative emitter of greenhouse gases, the primary cause of climate change.