With a degree of haughtiness bordering on racism, an ASML engineer once commented that even if they gave the blue prints, China would not be able to manufacture a Deep Ultra Violet (DUV) lithography machine let alone a cutting edge Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) machine. But in a surprise announcement Huawei recently declared the development and testing of a domestically manufactured EUV lithography machine.[1]
Christophe Fouquet, CEO of ASML in an interview with NRC speculated based on the 20 year development period that it took his company and its partners to develop EUV technology that it would take China at least 10 to 15 years to accomplish the same feat and produce a low numerical aperture EUV Tool.[2] He declared confidently that current western standards progressing to high numerical aperture and even hyper numerical aperture allowing devices in the 3 nanometres to 1 nanometres to be produced efficiently, would outpace Chinese developments.
Furthermore the US government has urged ASML to halt maintenance and repairs on the DUV machines that China operates[3]. So far the Dutch government has refrained from accepting these demands as ASML would like to maintain control over machines installed in China to alleviate the risk of intellectual property theft, which is likely when Chinese firms take over maintenance and repair.
Short of the Manhattan project and the development of nuclear weapons it’s rare that a single machine or process can have as wide-ranging geopolitical ramifications as the introduction and development of EUV lithography has had. These are machines that are the size of a bus and use advanced lasers in the form of ultraviolet light to print intricate patterns onto silicon wafers.
Although China has had access to DUV machines, including the more advanced DUVi model, it has nevertheless been restricted to producing more mature nodes with cutting edge chips beyond the capabilities of these tools.
These earlier-generation lithography systems use 248nm and 193nm wavelengths of light compared to EUV’s 13.5nm radiation. China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) is the country’s premier chip manufacturing company and has to rely on multiple patterning steps to obtain 7nm and 5nm nodes, which not only increase wafer production costs but is a time-consuming process and results in unacceptably low yields. It was estimated that SMIC’s 5nm chips are 50% more expensive than Taiwan’s TSMC’s.[4]
For China the development of this EUV Lithography machine constitutes a breakout moment for not only its semiconductor industry but a range of industries from automotive, robotics, AI, defence and numerous other manufacturing and service industries. It is a widely known that almost any technologically advanced product necessitates advanced chips at 5nm or below to be embedded in their control systems or at a minimum are involved in their manufacture, from autonomous cars to data centres the 5nm watershed is an important milestone for any country to reach.[5]
Previously, Chinese industry would have to suffice itself with what was considered second best 14nm or above, slower, larger and consuming significantly more energy. These mature nodes as they are euphemistically known in the industry suffice only for the developing world and low tech products and services. With the development of the EUV machine China will now be able to manufacture chips equal or better than those produced by the US and its allies.
With the deprivation of EUV tools the US was hoping to stall Chinese development indefinitely. By restricting access to the production and acquisition of advanced chips the US believed the lead that the West had over China would be technically and financially insurmountable. But what has taken the west over 30 years to develop, China has managed to achieve in less than 5 years.
Although little is known about this exciting development, trial production is scheduled for Q3 2025 with serial production beginning in 2026.[6] Furthermore Huawei ‘s machine is stated to use laser induced discharge plasma (LDP) as opposed to ASML’s Laser produced plasma (LPP) process. The ASML process is more complex and energy demanding, requiring high-energy lasers and complex Field Programmable Gate Array-based controls. Huawei’s LPP process on the other hand is said to feature a simpler and smaller design that also consumes less power and costs less to manufacture. It converts electrical energy directly into EUV light rather than indirectly as ASMLs LPP process does.[7] Typical of China’s secretive and subterfuge based policies, SMEE China’s premier lithography tool manufacturer applied for a patent on a LPP light source in December 2023, whilst in reality it was developing an LDP light source.[8]
Unlike Russia where bellicose statements often belie a more humble capability or achievement, the more cautious Chinese, fearing strengthened measures against them, will only make announcements when a capability is near or very near to maturity. Hence we expect that the machines in question are deployed or are very close to being deployed.
The effect of the introduction of this machine significantly complicates policy for the US and its allies. ASML’s share price tanked significantly upon the announcement of this breakthrough[9] and Taiwan fears that its so-called silicon shield will be compromised making the intervention of the US and its allies less likely in the advent of a Chinese takeover.
For the US with its global interests the proliferation of advanced chips and the means to produce them further complicates its foreign policy[10], where like Rome in its final days it finds itself unable to exert its will on lesser but more numerous foes.
Coming soon from the geopolity – DEEP DIVE: The Geopolitics of Technology
[2] ASML CEO says China is 10 to 15 years behind in chipmaking capabilities – Dutch Times
[3] The US wants ASML to stop servicing its advanced chipmaking tools in China: Report | Tom’s Hardware
[5] What Is a 5nm Chip, and Why Is 5nm So Important? – UMA Technology
[10] Rocks vs. Chips | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace