As the anniversary of October 7th approaches this geopolity series will look where things stand after 12 months. We begin with Israel who was on the receiving end of an armed assault on October 7th and subsequently responded with an invasion of Gaza.
As the anniversary of October 7th approaches the events from a year ago and subsequent response continues to reverberate around the world. October 7th 2023 is considered the biggest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust. The Israeli response to October 7th has seen much of the world turn against it with the country taken to the International Criminal Court (ICC) over a likely genocide. The Israeli military, propaganda, diplomatic and political machinery went into 5th gear after October 7th and as the anniversary approaches Israeli credibility has taken a major hit.
The World’s Largest Open Prison
Prior to the events of October 7th, the Gaza Strip consisted of Palestinian refugees. The territory became a refuge for Palestinians in 1948 When Zionists seized historic Palestine and expelled the indigenous people. It was under Egyptian authority from 1948 until it was occupied by Israel in the 1967 war leading to the beginning of a decades long military occupation. In the 1990s the Oslo Accords established the Palestinian Authority (PA) as a limited governing authority over some territories including Gaza, initially led by Fatah until its electoral defeat in 2006 to Hamas.
In 2005 Israel evacuated its 21 settlements within Gaza and redeployed its military along the border of Gaza. Until then successive Israeli regimes ruled Gaza as part of Israel and had come to conclude that the rapidly increasing demographics of Gaza would threaten the Jewish majority. The motivation behind the disengagement was described by then Israeli leader Ariel Sharon’s top aide as a means of isolating Gaza and avoiding international pressure on Israel to reach a political settlement with the Palestinians. Whilst Israel dismantled its settlements, it implemented a blockade of Gaza, which human rights groups have described as the most densely populated open air prison in the world. Israel even determined how many calories Gazans were allowed under the blockade.[1]
With Gaza effectively a concentration camp, Israel focused on expanding settlements in the West Bank and maintaining security there. This led to most of the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) being stationed there in order to maintain and expand Israel’s occupation. On the eve of October 7th the IDF was gearing up for a major operation to seize more territory in the West Bank
Most Peaceful Region
Israeli officials were warned about the possibility of an attack prior to October 7th. Why they failed to act will only be fully known once an investigation looks into the failures of October 7th. Israeli officials obtained Hamas’s battle plan for the October 7th attack more than a year before it happened. The detailed plan of the operation was reportedly presented by the Israeli Security Forces Gaza Division Commander to the Israeli Security Forces leadership in July 2022. But Israeli military and intelligence officials dismissed the plan as aspirational, considering it too difficult for Hamas to carry out.[2] In addition, Israel’s female border surveillance forces had on numerous occasions warned that Hamas was conducting training exercises on the basis of the plan. But Netanyahu and his security services were complacent, believing they had nothing to fear from Hamas in Gaza.[3] Furthermore, Israel had repeatedly been warned by Egyptian intelligence that “something big” was likely to take place.[4] In the months leading up to October 7th, Hamas’s military wing, the al-Qassam brigade, posted videos of themselves and their allies training for the attacks against military targets.[5] With Gaza under a decades long lockdown, with Israeli forces predominantly in the West Bank, preparing for a major escalation and with normalisation with the surrounding Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia on the verge of being agreed, Netanyahu believed the region had never been so peaceful.
Israeli officials were warned about the possibility of an attack prior to October 7th…but Israeli military and intelligence officials dismissed the plan as aspirational, considering it too difficult for Hamas to carry out
Hamas announced the start of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood at 6:30am on October 7th. Ezzedeen al-Qassam Brigades commander, the military wing of Hamas, Mohammed Deif gave a speech mentioning Israel’s 16-year blockade of Gaza and a litany of other violations as the reason for the operation. At the same time the Palestinian armed groups launched a heavy barrage of rockets and mortar fire at Israel, targeting southern villages, towns and cities. Projectiles were also fired at military bases located close to the border housing ‘lookout posts’, with the aim of blinding Israeli forces to the approaching attack and impeding their ability to coordinate a counter-strike. Under the cover of rocket fire, the armed groups breached the fence alongside the Gaza Strip and Israel in at least 29 different locations. These fences which had long been used to imprison Gazans also saw unarmed civilians and other groups, not part of the al-Aqsa flood operation enter into Southern Israel. Other members of the operation entered Israeli airspace using motorised hang-gliders and entered Israel by sea, landing at Zikim beach.
The operation saw the targeting of specific towns and villages. In total 24 localities were targeted and up to 8 military bases and outposts were also attacked. The armed groups achieved this by ambushing key roads leading from areas of Israel near the Gaza border known as the Gaza Envelope. The ability of the armed groups to control key intersections along Road 232 was arguably the most successful and vital component in their ability to carry out their attacks on the surrounding territory as well as a major hindrance to the arrival of security forces.
The Nova music festival saw the highest number of deaths in one location. Nearly a quarter of all Israeli casualties that day were from the Nova festival. Around 40 people were taken hostage to Gaza. According to the Israeli security assessment, the armed groups did not know about the festival site in advance of the attack. Following the attack, Israeli security officials concluded that the armed groups found out about the festival as they flew over the area using motorised hang-gliders.
The IDFs Colossal Failures
After the initial breach of the Gaza perimeter by Palestinian armed groups it was initially small teams of local rapid deployment security personnel in several locations that defended Israel against the attack. They were slow to arrive, insufficient in numbers and lacked coordination with central command. It would take several hours for more significant and organised Israeli Security Forces to arrive, who arrived in numbers in the early afternoon. The first helicopters sent to support the small number of air units were launched from the north of Israel, and arrived in Gaza an hour after fighting began. But pilots had difficulty determining which outposts and settlements were occupied and distinguishing between Palestinian fighters and Israeli soldiers and civilians on the ground. By 9:45am Israel began bombing Gaza.
Israeli security forces were overwhelmed for a number of reasons. Israeli Security Forces based in outposts were forced to defend their positions and engage in battles and were therefore not able to deploy to the civilian villages. They were also overwhelmed by the large number of locations that were targeted. The Palestinian armed groups also rendered surveillance equipment ineffective earlier in the day. The Sderot police station came under Hamas control early on October 7th. They deliberately destroyed the computer systems at the police station, which disabled communication and delayed the response to the attacks.
With a number of locations in Southern Israel overrun and with the armed groups taking hostages back to Gaza for future prisoner swaps the IDF is believed to have implemented the Hannibal Directive, ordering all combat units to stop at all costs any attempt by the Palestinian armed groups to return to Gaza, even if there were hostages with them. A number of tank commanders have admitted they targeted homes, vehicles and other targets knowing Israelis would also be killed. Helicopter pilots also admitted they could not differentiate between Israelis and the armed groups and still launched attacks. In the aftermath of the October 7th attacks it became clear the structural damage to buildings and homes required heavy bombs, which was not possible by Hamas and the other groups who used light weaponry.
On July 11th 2024 the IDF presented its probe into the battle at the kibbutz Be’eri— the first in its detailed investigations of the many battles on October 7th. It concluded it was the army’s colossal failures that enabled the massacre. It’s likely all the other areas that were targeted will highlight further Israeli security failures.
With a number of locations in Southern Israel overrun and with the armed groups taking hostages back to Gaza for future prisoner swaps the IDF is believed to have implemented the Hannibal Directive
Collective Punishment vs Genocide
As the events of October 7th beamed around the world and the abduction and deaths became clear Israel geared up to respond. With global sympathy and western support Israeli officials outlined their intent.
Israel’s Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant said “We are fighting human animals,” and described Israel’s military response just days after the October 7th attack as: “We will eliminate everything – they will regret it.” Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, evoked a biblical analogy referring to the Israelites’ enemy, largely interpreted as a genocidal call to wipe out Gaza. “You must remember what Amalek has done to you, says our Holy Bible – we do remember,” he said during an official video statement. Ghassan Alian, who was the head of the Israeli army’s Coordination of Government Activities in the Palestinian Territories (COGAT), declared: “There will be no electricity and no water (in Gaza), there will only be destruction. You wanted hell, you will get hell.” The Israeli Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu in a radio interview said that dropping a nuclear bomb on Gaza was a possible tactic Israel could employ. Genocidal rhetoric became a key pillar of Israel’s response and has been a constant feature throughout the Zionist occupation of Palestine.
Israeli ground forces began the invasion of Gaza on October 27th which it described as “operations” and “raids.” By the middle of December 2023 Israel had dropped 29,000 munitions on Gaza, destroying over 70% of homes, destroying hundreds of cultural landmarks, damaging dozens of cemeteries. Mosques, Churches, refugee centres and hospitals were not spared. Israeli forces created a man-made famine by blocking humanitarian aid to the Gazans. Over 41,000 Gazans have now been killed, over half of these are women and children. Whilst Israel has been criticised for its unhinged response, the west and the US have continued arms transfers. This genocidal response has been Israel’s central response, the Israeli security cabinet member Avi Dichter even described Israeli strategy in Gaza as ‘Nakba 2023.’[6]
Propaganda War
Israel launched its information war immediately after October 7th. Its officials, ambassadors and supporters took to the airwaves to launch the Israeli information war. The narrative that was promoted was Israel was acting in self-defence in Gaza. Its objective was to free hostages held by Hamas, and to re-establish order and security by destroying Hamas’ military capabilities. It was also doing all this in the most careful and humane manner possible.
The Israeli propaganda war and narrative has been a major failure. Many around the world saw the large discrepancy between what they were hearing and seeing. What everyone saw was the complete destruction of Gaza. As a result, the self-defence narrative and the ‘do you condemn Hamas’ narrative failed to take hold. What really derailed the Israeli propaganda war was many of the shocking allegations that over the past year have proven to be false and are now completely discredited. The killing of babies, babies being pulled out of pregnant women, the beheading of babies, the burning of babies and placing them in ovens. As well as the raping and abuse of women. These claims have been found to lack evidence, proven to have been made-up, contradict other testimony or just dropped by Israeli officials.
In an investigation by the Hebrew newspaper Haaretz, they concluded almost half the people killed on October 7th were in fact combatants – soldiers or police. They found there were no recorded deaths of children under the age of three, which discredited the Israeli narrative that babies were targeted by Palestinian fighters.
Why Israel Wants a Regional War
Israel’s narrative is its defending itself after the events of October 7th that was supported by Israel’s regional foes in Iran, in Syria and in Lebanon. On April 1st 2024 Israel launched a strike on Iran’s consulate in Syria and then on July 30th Israel assassinated Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s senior commander in the suburbs of Beirut. The next day Israel assassinated the chief of Hamas’ political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, who was attending the inauguration of newly elected Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Israel continues to accuse Hezbollah and Iran of arming and supporting the Palestinian resistance groups and is now regularly carrying out strikes beyond Gaza. Israel in trying to launch a regional war is attempting to achieve two goals. The first is Israel is trying to, under the guise of the October 7th target its regional enemies and this is why it’s lumped all of them into the events of October 7th. Secondly Israel has used escalation in order to force a response from its regional foes each time it is under pressure to agree to a ceasefire, reduce civilian deaths and come to an agreement with the Palestine people.
What the Israeli government has been attempting is a cynical ploy to force the hand of the US and draw it into supporting Israel in any response against Iran and Hezbollah. Israel’s act of expanding the war from Gaza to the wider region is to force the US administration to defend and arm Israel.
What the Israeli government has been attempting is a cynical ploy to force the hand of the US and draw it into supporting Israel
Biting the Hand That Feeds You
Whilst Israel has been conducting unrestricted collective punishment against the Palestinians and the broader region it has been under pressure from the US at each turn and been forced to navigate US pressure and restrictions. Whilst the Biden administration has publicly provided Israel with support and argued Israel has the right to defend itself, privately the White House and senior democratic officials have got in the way of Netanyahu’s plans in order for Israel to not go against US plans for the Middle East. The Israeli government wanted to expel the population of Gaza into the desert and made it clear this was one of its aims when it launched its operation after October 7th. Israel contacted Egypt to discuss the subject,[7] but US president Biden spoke to Egyptian president Sisi to ensure Egypt would refuse the idea.[8]
Each time Israel escalated its brutality in Gaza, it was criticised by the White House, but Israel continues in its slaughter undermining the US president. Each time this happened Israel was provided with support from members of Congress who agreed funding for arms deals to Israel. Israeli support amongst the Zionists in the US and those who believe Israel is essential to US policy in the Middle East rallied against the White House and forced the US president to climb down against Israel on more than one occasion. The Gaza war created deep differences between the White House and other factions within the US political system, including the Israel lobby. This is what has led the right-wing government in Israel to openly disobey US orders and refuse to align with America’s strategy in the Middle East.
Israeli strikes on Iran’s consulate in Syria on April 1st was in the context of increasing pressure on Israel. There was severe criticism of Israel as the death toll increased and as it refused to engage in meaningful talks with Hamas to bring the war to a conclusion. In March 2024 the White House formally told Israel that it would only continue to supply weapons if the Israelis gave a written assurance they would abide by international law when using the weapons, and allow humanitarian aid into Gaza.[9] On the 14th of March 2024, senior democratic leader and one of America’s top legislators, Chuck Schumer called for regime change in Israel and for Netanyahu to go. This was the most open attack upon Israel by one of America’s most senior politicians.[10]
Israel responded by launching an air strike on April 1st on the Iranian consulate in Syria, knowing Iran would have to respond to this escalation, the Biden administration was forced to defend Israel in any Iranian response. In this way Netanyahu escalated matters whenever pressure on him grew. All the ceasefire and post war proposals have seen Netanyahu drag his feet and constantly force new conditions, which delayed or completely halted any progress on talks. With support from the Israel lobby and many in Congress, Israel has been able to navigate around every White House attempt to contain and bring Netanyahu in line.
From Genocide Victims to Genocide Perpetrators?
To the shock of many around the world South Africa dropped a bombshell in December 2023 when it took a case to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the United Nations’ highest judicial body. It accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. The ICJ ruled that South Africa’s genocide case against Israel should proceed due to the plausibility of a genocide taking place.
This was an extraordinary moment as the nation that had come about due to being victims of a genocide were now being accused of committing one in the 21st century. There will be serious implications for Israel if it’s found to be perpetuating a genocide as a result the Israeli Foreign Ministry instructed its embassies to pressure politicians and diplomats in their host countries to make statements opposing South Africa’s case at the ICJ. Israel has historically not participated in international tribunals in order to undermine them and present an image that it doesn’t recognise them and therefore they have no jurisdiction. But in the end the Israeli government decided to participate in the ICJ proceedings.
The ICJ court case in many ways sums up where the slaughter in Gaza is as we approach the one year anniversary of the events of October 7th. Whilst Israel had global sympathy after October 7th, the world now stands with Palestine and Israel has become a pariah state with global sympathy completely with the Palestinians.
Israel’s propaganda war has been a complete failure with every allegation now discredited and with support for Palestinians still growing in the West. Pro-Zionists have struggled to defend Israel’s actions in the mainstream media and on social media and in the west where Israel long had support, many of the pro-Zionist leaders have struggled to dampen anti-Israel sentiment. Israel has tried to colour every fact against them by accusing the perpetrator of being anti-Semitic. This went to the extreme when some even called US president Joe Biden anti-Semitic, as he called for Israel to reduce civilian deaths in Gaza.[11]
The Israeli strategy has been to continue the slaughter in Gaza irrespective of international public opinion and even public opinion in western capitals. What Israel’s response has achieved is turn many in the west against Israel as can be seen with the large and regular demonstrations, the university sit-ins and the divestment and boycott campaigns. What Israel’s actions over the past year have done is put the plight of the Palestinians on the map and all attempts by Israel to smear the Palestinian cause have failed. Whilst Israel still receives support from western leaders across the world its credibility amongst the masses has hit rock bottom. And after a year since October 7th, Israel is neither safe, secure or stable.
In the next part in this series looking at the anniversary of the October 7th assault we look at what drove the various factions from Gaza to carry out the assault and where this leaves the Palestinian liberation struggle
Part 2 – October 7th and the Palestinian Liberation Struggle
[2] Israel Knew Hamas’s Attack Plan Over a Year Ago – The New York Times (nytimes.com)
[3] Our warnings on Hamas were ignored, Israel’s women border troops say – POLITICO
[5] Hamas posted video of mock attack weeks before border breach | AP News
[7] Israel Quietly Pushed for Egypt to Admit Large Numbers of Gazans – The New York Times (nytimes.com)
[8] Israel-Hamas War: Biden, Sisi Agree Gazans Shouldn’t Be Displaced to Egypt – Bloomberg
