GAZA UPDATE: Netanyahu Prolongs War

As the plausible genocide in Gaza approaches ten months, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the US that included addressing a joint session of Congress. In our last analysis, from April 2024 we provided insight into Iran’s airstrike on Israel after the Zionist entity shattered diplomatic norms on the 1st of April 2024, when it conducted strikes on Iran’s consulate in Syria.

In the analysis at the time we concluded it was Israel that wanted a regional war and not Iran. The military strike from Israel came in the context of growing American pressure against the Israeli government to get in line with US demands. The attack by Israel was a cynical ploy to force the hand of the White House, when pressure was increasing. In turn Iran coordinated, informed and cooperated with the US and in the end carried out a very limited strike to save face. Iran telegraphed its intention to launch strikes against Israel and even entered into direct dialogue with the US after the Israeli consulate attack in Syria. The Biden administration was able to deal with Israel’s bellicose behaviour by engaging Iran, something it has repeatedly done in the region, despite the public portrayal of animosity between the two nations.

We have shown repeatedly through our analysis, beginning in December 2023 that the US administration has been working behind the scenes to shape Israeli behaviour and bring her in line with the American geostrategy and related objectives in the Middle East, whilst maintaining a public image of unconditional support. The Gaza war created deep differences between the White House and other factions within the US political system, including the Zionist lobby. This is what has led the right-wing government in Israel to openly disobey US orders and refuse to align with America’s strategy in the Middle East. This has been possible due to the Zionist Lobby’s support for Israel, which has restricted the US president’s hand.

This analysis will look at the developments since April and what these indicate about the most likely trajectory of the War on Gaza.

Another Ceasefire Proposal

On the 31st of May 2024 the US president Joe Biden presented a three part ceasefire proposal to end the conflict in Gaza. The three-part proposal would begin with a six-week ceasefire in which the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would withdraw from populated areas of Gaza. There would then be a “surge” of humanitarian aid. As well as an exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners. The deal would eventually lead to a permanent “cessation of hostilities” and a major reconstruction plan for Gaza.

US officials proceeded to pressure Israel to accept the ceasefire proposal and touted its benefits. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in a visit to the Middle East beginning the 8th of June 2024 met with Netanyahu who supported the cease-fire proposal, although his statements in subsequent days would be the complete opposite.[1] The ceasefire proposal was presented in the global media as an ‘Israeli’ proposal to shape public opinion that Israel has accepted the deal and Hamas now should also accept the proposal.

The ceasefire proposal included the return of Israeli hostages which would benefit the regime of Netanyahu, who confirmed he was prepared to pause hostilities for the purpose of returning hostages. Israel’s political left and other mainstream parties as well as the country’s military and security officials also accepted the deal. Netanyahu’s chief foreign policy advisor Ophir Falk called it a “bad deal that Israel would nevertheless accept.”[2] But the right-wing coalition partners in Netanyahu’s cabinet pressured him to ignore it. This resulted in Netanyahu undermining the proposal by arguing there would be no permanent cease-fire until Israel has destroyed Hamas.

Hamas was not the problem when it came to this US proposal as it supported it the moment Joe Biden announced it on the 31st of May. Hamas has for long demanded a permanent ceasefire that discusses the long-term position of a Palestinian state, this being its sole demand. The hostages are the only leverage the group has in the face of Israel’s onslaught. Netanyahu explicitly said the deal should not include a permanent ceasefire and that he would continue to target Hamas until the organisation was destroyed. This position went against the essence of the ceasefire proposal.

Netanyahu…supported the cease-fire proposal, although his statements in subsequent days would be the complete opposite

It has now been two months since US president, Joe Biden proposed the ceasefire deal and despite numerous talks, including Israeli intelligence chief David Barnea, meeting mediators in Doha on the 12th of July, no tangible progress has been made.

The reason for the lack of progress which is now bordering on failure, is twofold. Benjamin Netanyahu is fighting for his own survival with the right-wing in his cabinet constantly threatening to leave the coalition and thus collapse his government if Netanyahu agrees to US demands. As a result Netanyahu either drags his feet to slow down progress or he escalates matters elsewhere such as in Lebanon. The landscape in the US offers him every incentive to also do this. With the US elites divided on the issue of Gaza, this has given fertile ground for him to use this to his advantage. Whilst the Biden administration is pressing Netanyahu to accept the proposal, the Republicans and Zionist lobby invited him to address the US congress, giving him a platform to explain his side and gain support. Not surprisingly President Biden told Time magazine in early June “…there is every reason for people to conclude that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is prolonging the war in Gaza for personal political survival.”[3]

Netanyahu is trying to avoid peace and has dragged out the negotiations about a Gaza ceasefire by constantly adding new and unreasonable terms. His address to the US Congress gives him an incentive to continue with this strategy. With US elections due in November, Netanyahu expects Republican support as they share an interest in making democratic efforts fail.

The only other way the ceasefire proposal could have been achieved is if the Biden administration severely increased pressure on Netanyahu to force him to accept the proposal. But since the 7th of October this has not been the case. The White House has banned the export of certain types of missiles or halted specific exports to force Netanyahu hand, but still exported plenty of other war material. Due to the Zionist influence in the US it’s looking more and more like the US president doesn’t have the practical ability to force his opinion on this issue. With Joe Biden no longer standing in the November presidential elections the democrats will need Zionist support to win a new term.

Netanyahu is trying to avoid peace and has dragged out the negotiations about a Gaza ceasefire by constantly adding new and unreasonable terms

To War or Not to War with Hezbollah

Since the events of the 7th of October Israel and Hezbollah have been trading blows on a near daily basis. France24 confirmed in June 2024, Israel’s army had carried out nearly 4,900 attacks on southern Lebanon since the 7th of October. Hezbollah had launched about 1,100 attacks on Israeli positions inside over the same period. The hostilities forced an estimated 60,000 Israeli and 100,000 Lebanese residents from their homes. More than 300 Hezbollah fighters and commanders had been killed as well as about 80 civilians, along with nearly two dozen Israeli soldiers and civilians.

Despite the division over the war in Gaza, there seems to be unity when it comes to war in Lebanon amongst the political spectrum in Israel. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right national security minister, demanded “war.” Opposition leader Benny Gantz, a former army chief, who quit the emergency war cabinet in June, stated that the 1st of September, the start of the school year, was the deadline for northern Israeli residents to return to their homes. “You can’t lose another year in the north. It will happen either via [a diplomatic] arrangement or via [military] escalation,” Gantz said.[4] In early May the Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said, “This summer may be a hot summer.”[5] Some Israeli forces have already been redeployed to the north of the country, which all paints a picture of a major escalation. Israelis of all stripes have been threatening more intense action against Hezbollah after an escalation in cross-border fire, increasing tensions all the while promoting the prospect of all-out war with the Lebanese group.

The US on the other hand has been actively working to block this Lebanon war plan. President Biden dispatched the energy specialist Amos Hochstein to the region on the 17th o fJune 2024 to try and cool tensions and halt any Israeli war plan against Lebanon. When Hochstein left Israel for Lebanon, Israel killed a number of Hezbollah fighters and commanders. Once in Beirut Hochstein reportedly told officials that the White House was ready to support an Israeli offensive in southern Lebanon if a “diplomatic solution” is not found to stop cross-border hostilities with Hezbollah. “The US will stand by Israel and not condemn them publicly if it launches an offensive against Hezbollah,” Hochstein told senior officials in Beirut.[6]

Opening a second front in the north of Israel when she is already at war in Gaza would overstretch Israel’s military capabilities. Hezbollah is an altogether different prospect to Hamas in Gaza

Rather than stop Israel and de-escalate matters, Hochstein achieved the exact opposite. Hochstein was an odd choice to act as Biden’s envoy. He was born in Israel and served in the IDF. He clearly failed to win the Israeli leadership over, to not engage Hezbollah. His remarks in Lebanon would indicate the Israelis convinced him of their reasons to go to war in Lebanon. This would once again confirm the trend we have been following at the geopolity of the splits within the US over the Gaza war and support for Israel.

Opening a second front in the north of Israel when she is already at war in Gaza would overstretch Israel’s military capabilities. Hezbollah is an altogether different prospect to Hamas in Gaza. Hezbollah is much more capable than Hamas, has a sizable arsenal of missiles and rockets that can reach deep into Israel and Hezbollah has the support of Iran and is its main proxy in the region. Whilst Israel has always had the goal of pushing Hezbollah back behind the Litani River – around 20 miles into Lebanon, the current circumstances suit Israel as the US will be drawn in to deliver on the security guarantee it provides Israel, and it forces the hand of the Biden administration who is working to bring Israel in line with US regional objectives.

Escalating war into Lebanon is another cynical ploy by Netanyahu, which allows him to continue the war, once war in Gaza ends. It also allows him to use ‘the Lebanon card’ in the face of any serious pressure by the White House to accept a ­­ceasefire.

US Soft Power in Decline

Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza is being watched by the whole world and despite this Israel continues to target women, children, places of worship, schools, hospitals, humanitarian aid trucks which has all created a man-made famine. America’s open support for Israel that includes supplying it was the bombs needed to carry out the genocide is being televised live and has led to opposition to grow against the US around the world and within the US, as seen with the student protests.

America’s global position was already in decline due to the decade long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and with the unorthodox presidency of Donald Trump. It should be no surprise that over half of Southeast Asians would now prefer to align with China over the US if they were forced to choose between the rival superpowers, a regional survey found, reflecting Beijing’s growing influence in the region.[7] The US government inability to reign in Israel is impacting its soft power, alongside the war in Ukraine that now see’s Russia on top in the conflict. The US ability to steer conflicts in line with its objectives is now seen as something of the past. The US will soon need to decide if it wants to go down with Israel in the court of public opinion.

The Impact of the US Presidential Elections

Netanyahu has successfully evaded the Biden administration for the last 10 months, despite the different attempts by the White House to bring him in line with US strategic interests. With Joe Biden no longer on the ballot paper for the presidential election in November, Netanyahu has largely succeeded in keeping the war going and making Gaza uninhabitable.

Netanyahu has been working for years to mend ties with Donald Trump and has now increased efforts as it looks likely Trump will be in the White House again. Netanyahu and his aides worry relations with Trump will not be as close as previously. Netanyahu allies have met with Trump on at least four occasions over the past three years to try to repair ties, which deteriorated after Netanyahu congratulated Biden for his victory in the 2020 election.

Trump accused Netanyahu of disloyalty for accepting Biden’s win rather than backing his fraud claims despite all he’d done for Israel and Netanyahu personally. In an interview, Trump said “I haven’t spoken to him since, F**k him.” Trump expressed grievances, claiming Netanyahu’s government wasn’t serious about peace with the Palestinians. Both Trump and Netanyahu cultivated the public perception that there was no daylight between them as they worked closely together on key issues. But by the end of his presidency, Trump had concluded that Netanyahu didn’t really want peace with the Palestinians and was using him regarding Iran.

In conclusion, Netanyahu since the events of the 7th of October has worked to keep the slaughter going as this serves the Zionist greater Israel agenda and the personal position of Netanyahu. Netanyahu and its allies want the complete surrender of the Palestinians and have successfully opposed all US peace and ceasefire deals. This has been possible due to the Zionist influence in the US which has forced the US president’s hand. With the US presidential election campaign season now in full swing the US will be occupied for the next three months, giving Netanyahu and his allies a free hand to continue the genocide in Gaza.

[1] US Says Netanyahu Backs Cease-Fire Plan as Hamas Delivers Answer, Bloomberg, 11th June 2024, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-11/us-says-netanyahu-backs-cease-fire-plan-for-israel-hamas-war

[2] Netanyahu Doesn’t Want a Deal – He Wants to ‘Finish the Job,’ Novara Media, 3 June 2024, https://novaramedia.com/2024/06/03/netanyahu-doesnt-want-a-deal-he-wants-to-finish-the-job/

[3] Read the Full Transcript of President Joe Biden’s Interview With TIME, Time, 4 June 2024, https://time.com/6984968/joe-biden-transcript-2024-interview/

[4]  Netanyahu Is Waging Three Wars of Attrition: Against Hamas, Hezbollah and the Israeli People, Haaretz, 28 June 2024, https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-06-28/ty-article/.premium/netanyahus-three-wars-of-attrition-against-hamas-hezbollah-and-the-israeli-people/00000190-5af8-d1c4-affa-5bfee2a50000

[5] Israel, Hezbollah trade fire, Israeli minister warns of ‘hot summer’ at Lebanon border, Reuters, 9 May 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hezbollah-trade-heavy-fire-violence-escalates-2024-05-08/

[6] US reminds Lebanon: ‘We will back Israeli offensive against Hezbollah’ the Cradle, 20 June 2024, https://thecradle.co/articles-id/25530

[7] Majority of ASEAN people favor China over U.S., survey finds, Nikkei Asia, 4 April 2024, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Majority-of-ASEAN-people-favor-China-over-U.S.-survey-finds