Pakistan and Afghanistan are once again teetering on the brink of all out war thereby undermining the much-vaunted Chinese ceasefire [1]. Pakistan has long accused Afghanistan of harboring Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and ISI affiliates who carry out attacks on its soil, a claim vehemently denied by Taliban government. Kabul in turn has accused Islamabad of conducting unprovoked military operations which kill Afghan civilians. Pakistan in its defence maintains that it only targets militants.
Nevertheless, the stakes extend beyond border clashes, as Islamabad under US tutelage seeks to position itself as a lynchpin of a new regional security architecture linked to Iran, Egypt, Turkey, the Gulf states and wider Eurasian connectivity. Such ambitions require credibility, stable borders and dependable regional relationships, not a deteriorating western frontier. The latest escalation raises a fundamental question: has Pakistan lost the ability to manage its neighborhood politically, allowing coercion, mistrust and geopolitical competition to dictate events instead?
Much of the deterioration has occurred during General Asim Munir’s tenure. After succeeding the chief of army staff Qamar Bajwa in November 2022, Munir has adopted an increasingly security first approach towards Afghanistan. Measures such as the mass deportation of Afghan refugees, tougher border enforcement across the 2670km Durand Line and frequent military action against TTP infrastructure reflects a preference for coercive solutions over political diplomacy.
Munir’s security centric approach is not limited to its Western neighbor. In May 2025, Pakistan went to war with India over unprovoked attacks on its soil and was able to achieve air superiority over its archrival, which prompted India to implore the Americans for a ceasefire [2]. The tacit victory encouraged Trump to award Munir a bigger role in turning America’s defeat to Iran into political success through a new regional security and economic architecture that permits the US to withdraw from the Middle East but retain its influence.
Munir may view his security first approach, at home and abroad, as the foundation of lasting greatness for himself. In reality, his heavy handedness has merely cleared the path for other countries to achieve greatness at Pakistan’s expense
Pakistan has applied the same security hardened logic domestically. Security crackdowns have intensified in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and, more recently, Pakistan-administered Kashmir [3 &4]. None of these challenges began under the current military leadership. However, Pakistan’s increasingly violent response to genuine dissent has aggravated existing grievances rather than assuaging them.
Pakistan’s use of violence as an instrument of suppression against domestic opponents, does not equate to the strengthening of the state under Munir. On the contrary, it indicates that the legitimacy of the state in the view of Pakistanis has reached an all-time low. The same attitudes are now prevalent across the border in Kabul. Afghanistan, once a bastion of Pakistan’s strategic depth has now turned on Islamabad with vengeance.
These developments have not gone un-noticed amongst Pakistan’s enemies and supporters. India in its quest for greater Baharat has doubled down on its relations with Afghanistan. India not only looks to accentuate differences between Kabul and Islamabad but covets the use of Afghan soil to weaken Pakistan’s control over Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. India regards Pakistan as a renegade province that must be severely weakened and re-integrated into Mother India. Another actor looking to dismember Pakistan is the Jewish state. Israel in its quest for greatness in the Middle East views Pakistan as a grave danger to its regional ambitions, and along with India shares concerns that a stronger Pakistan is detrimental to their existence.
Pakistan’s use of violence as an instrument of suppression against domestic opponents, does not equate to the strengthening of the state
As for Russia, it has officially recognized the Afghan Taliban government and has recently signed a military partnership with the government in Kabul. Russia is eager to deflect Islamic militancy away from its Southern flank to safeguard its hegemony over the Central Asian states and restore some semblance of greater Russia – extending from Central Asia to Eastern Ukraine. Furthermore, Russia abhors Munir’s efforts to broker a new security architecture in the Middle East and bolster Pax-Americana’s longevity in the Middle East.
Washington is overtly supportive of Munir’s endeavors to forge a peace settlement that bestows President Trump a political victory over Iran. America has openly condemned Afghan inspired cross border attacks against Pakistan’s security forces. However, Washington’s political romance with Munir is one of casual convenience. Washington’s long-term interest lies in ensuring that Pakistan remains a useful regional partner without posing a threat to either Greater India or the Jewish state’s pursuit of greatness in the Middle East. When the opportune time arrives, America will sacrifice an impaired Pakistani state to strengthen India against China, and protect its interests in the Asian-Pacific
China is arguably the only major power with a genuine strategic interest in the long-term security and viability of the Pakistani state. A stable and capable Pakistan is essential for safeguarding Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which remains the flagship project of the initiative. Beyond economics, China also views Pakistan as a critical buffer against the spread of militancy from Afghanistan into Xinjiang and as an indispensable strategic counterweight to India’s growing regional influence. Beijing’s support for Pakistan is therefore not driven by sentiment or the strength of bilateral relations alone, but by a hard-headed balance-of-power calculation rooted in its long-term geopolitical interests.
Munir may view his security first approach, at home and abroad, as the foundation of lasting greatness for himself. In reality, his heavy handedness has merely cleared the path for other countries to achieve greatness at Pakistan’s expense.
Historically, the Seljuks, Ghaznavids, Delhi Sultanate, Mughals, and later day Afghan rulers skillfully managed domestic politics and simultaneously kept out foreign powers to ensure stability at home at Islam’s influence in the region.
The Seljuks unified the fragmented Islamic lands and aggressively kept out the Eastern Roman empire. The Ghaznavids invaded India repeatedly to expand their sultanate and to deter Hindu maharajas from challenging Islam. The Delhi sultanate defeated the Mongols five times and prevented India from falling under their despotic rule. While Mughal India became one of the world’s largest and wealthiest economies, controlling around a quarter of global output, and deepened its integration with the wider Muslim world through unified administration, a trusted silver currency, and extensive trade networks.
In the era of decline, the Afghans dealt a crushing defeat to the British Empire in the 19th century and, through skillful diplomacy and resistance, prevented both the British and Russians from ever colonizing Afghanistan.
This is not the approach Gen Asim Munir of Pakistan has taken and it remains to be seen how he will be remembered in history.
[1] BBC, (2026).Afghan Taliban launch strikes on border with Pakistan as tensions escalate. BBC, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/afghan-taliban-launch-strikes-on-border-with-pakistan-as-tensions-escalate/ar-AA26UzIG?ocid=BingNewsSerp
[2] Reuters, (2025). How Pakistan shot down India’s cutting-edge fighter using Chinese gear. Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/how-pakistan-shot-down-indias-cutting-edge-fighter-using-chinese-gear-2025-08-02/
[3] The Conversation (May 13, 2026). Baloch insurgency: Suicide bombs and uptick in violence threaten Pakistan, regional security. The Conversation, https://theconversation.com/baloch-insurgency-suicide-bombs-and-uptick-in-violence-threaten-pakistan-regional-security-282513
[4] Dawn, (June 2026).Opposition protests after being denied passage to Azad Kashmir. Dawn, https://www.dawn.com/news/2011796/opposition-protests-after-being-denied-passage-to-azad-kashmir
