Will Iran be the Start of the US–Israel Breakup?

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The US and Iran exchanged fire in the Straif of Hormuz last Thursday. But, US president  Trump downplayed the incident, describing it as “just a trifle” and saying it did not affect the ceasefire negotiations underway, writes The New York Times.

3W wonders why at this stage, the US appears so eager to downplay any military action by Iran. At earlier moments in history it would have jumped on them as an opportunity to justify a military operation against Iran. So why not now?

Part of the reason is explained by The New York Times, in our 3W view. NYT has meticulously analysed the Iranian claims regarding its strikes on US military bases across the Middle East region, using satellite imagery from companies around the world – because the US government asked US satellite imagery companies to stop publishing the information. NYT concludes that 18 sites were significantly damaged. But more importantly, NYT concluded the Iranian claims regarding its strikes were all factually correct. NYT also notes the Iranians effectively went after the US radar- and communication-systems, significantly affecting the US ability to wage war in the Middle East region but also to defend against Iranian counterstrikes.

In the 3W view this indicates the US is living in a dreamland, where it still has the global power that enables it to force its will on the rest of the world. That era is clearly over

In the 3W view it is important to add to this “battle damage assessment” the information about the impact of the war on the US’s stockpiles of weapons systems and associated ammunitions. 3W wrote last week, based on a CNN report, that “the US military is not capable of returning to war on Iran in any meaningful way” as “the US has eaten into its stockpiles of critical weapons systems and ammunitions to the point that should a conflict arise over the next few years, it is at serious risk of simply running out”. Meanwhile, Iran retains about 75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, writes The Washington Post on the basis of a classified CIA report that was delivered to the Trump administration. This means, 3W notes, that the military situation was severely worsened for the US – Israel Alliance by the 40 days of active fighting. Iran emerged much stronger. The US and Israel much weaker.

This explains why the US turned to a naval blockade on Iran – not during the fighting, but after. 3W’s initial assessment of this tactic was that is signaled desperation – and was destined to fail as it does not address Iran’s access to China and Russia via the Caspian Sea and overland routes through Central Asia and Pakistan. The CIA report referenced by WaPo confirmed this assessment, as It also concluded that Iran can survive the US naval blockade for at least three to four months. The report repeats everything we at 3W have also highlighted: Iran can store oil in ships, it can slow oil production, and it can continue to trade via the Caspian Sea, as well as overland via Central Asia and Pakistan. The New York Times has a deepdive in the role played by the Caspian Sea. Iranian officials there say their efforts to open alternative trade routes are progressing rapidly, with four Iranian ports along the Caspian working around the clock to bring in wheat, corn, animal feed, sunflower oil and other supplies. Russia is also shipping drone components to Iran via the Caspian Sea, US officials say.

It is important to note in this regard, in the 3W view, that beyond Iran’s ability to “break the siege”, its ability to persevere through the hardship caused by the US siege is significantly great than the world economy’s ability to persevere through the consequences of the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran.

The conclusion from all of the above is that the US – Israel Alliance is in a bad, bad situation. In response, one should expect more lashing out by the US, as mentally it cannot accept defeat.

The Financial Times writes the US has imposed sanctions on three Chinese commercial satellite companies for allegedly providing support to Iran. The targets of the sanctions included The Earth Eye, a satellite earth station company that the US accused of providing satellite imagery to Tehran. The other Chinese targets were MizarVision, a geospatial intelligence firm, and Chang Guang Satellite Technology, a commercial satellite imagery group that helped Iran by supplying images of military facilities operated by the US and its allies in the Middle East during Operation Epic Fury. Today’s action holds China-based entities accountable for their support to Iran,” US secretary of state Marco Rubio said in a statement, adding that Washington would “take all necessary action at its disposal to target third-country entities and individuals aiding Iran’s military and defence industrial base”.

President Donald Trump will urge President Xi Jinping to curb China’s support for Iran when the leaders meet in Beijing next week, writes The Financial Times. “I would expect the president to apply pressure,” a US official told reporters in a briefing. I think you’ve seen some actions, meaning sanctions, coming out from the US side just in the last few days that I’m sure will be part of that conversation,” the official added.

What else does the US have to pressure China? It’s sanctions policy failed to prevent China’s rise as a technological superpower

3W notes that more often than not, “lashing out” just makes a bad situation worse. One needs clear heads thinking strategically. Not anger looking for a shot of dopamine. This US sanctions move is an example of the latter, not the prior. It is ludicrous to think these sanctions on satellite companies will have an impact on the collaboration between Iran and China. What else does the US have to pressure China? It’s sanctions policy failed to prevent China’s rise as a technological superpower. Its tariffs failed to limit China’s export-led growth. Its dependency on Chinese rare earth effectively means it is cornered by China. So what will the US bring to the table that could hold China back from the international relations it deems in its strategic national interests? The US has no stick. It could use the carrot, as Chinese officials have been urging the US to change its policy on Taiwan. China wants Trump to say the US “opposes” Taiwanese independence rather than the current, more neutral, language. But when asked about this, US officials say: “We don’t expect to see any changes in US policy [on Taiwan] going forward.” In fact, the Trump administration approved a record $11.1 billion arms sale package for Taiwan in December and has been working on another package that could exceed $14 billion, notes FT.

In the 3W view this indicates the US is living in a dreamland, where it still has the global power that enables it to force its will on the rest of the world. That era is clearly over. And ironically, that was proven by China and Iran. The prior through resisting the US economic power efforts to block its rise, and the latter through resisting the US military power efforts to keep it down!

At 3W we expect the Xi – Trump meeting to be a resounding failure, therefore. US president Trump, and people around him like Hegseth, are emotions driven incompetent fools – pardon our frankness. The way they see themselves, and their position in the world, does not correspond to the facts on the ground. See for example Trump’s response to Iran response, to the latest ceasefire proposal by the US. Trump on Sunday rejected the Iranian response declaring that it was “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE”, writes The New York Times. This, 3W notes, is the emotional response of the mentally deranged, comfortable in his psychosis, ignorant of the facts on the ground. As explained above, the US has little to no leverage over Iran left, yet Trump continues to demand unconditional surrender, and then gets angry when – surprise, surprise! – Iran refuses to hoist the white flag and kiss his feet. Now, the idea that Trump will be able to win China over to its side, and use China to increase the pressure on Iran, is just as ludicrous, we at 3W say.

A group of Democrats in the US Congress have called on the State Department to break the US government’s longstanding silence on Israel’s nuclear capabilities

Axios writes that Tasnim news agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, reported that Iran’s text “stresses the necessity of lifting U.S. sanctions, ending the war on all fronts” and ensuring Iranian management of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also demanded an immediate release of frozen assets upon signing of the MOU to discuss ceasefire negotiations, and end to the US naval blockade upon signing a ceasefire agreement. In the 3W view this indicates that Iran knows it is in the stronger situation. And after its foreigner minister’s trips to Russia and China last week, it probably feels reassured of their support.

So this leaves the US with just two options. Maintaining the status quo will devastate the global economy, and thereby cause traditional allies to turn against the US so that is not a real option, through Trump’s instincts make him favor a simple “we won and now walk away”. But the only real options remaining are a military escalation, or meaningful US compromises in the negotiations with Iran. The prior would be like a “throw of the dice”, because the US does not have the military position that guarantees a favorable outcome. It would be like Adolf Hitler demanding “one more push” at Stalingrad, which, if it had worked, could have won the war for Nazi Germany. But because it didn’t, the final German push in fact sealed Germany’s defeat in WW2, as the Soviets encircled the German army of circa 300,000 men on the edge of Stalingrad, and then proceeded to destroy it completely.

Mentally, however, the US is not ready to make compromises. So, we at 3W foresee, it will continue to try and push forward, bombing, sanctioning, threatening and bullying. Not realising these actions are hurting it more than helping it. Eventually, what this will lead to is a breaking down of the US – Israel Alliance. According to Israeli press, this is already happening with some claiming that Israel is no longer being consulted over the Iran conflict, and even less over Pakistani-brokered peace talks, writes The Guardian. 3W notes that this would be a natural outcome of the current situation. Recall, after all, that Israel led the US into this war on Iran. The Guardian summarizes the role played by Netanyahu and the head of Israel’s Mossad David Barnea, including the arguments they used. “Netanyahu, being the conman that he is, used Venezuela as an example,” Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli diplomat, said. “He said to him: ‘Look what you did in Venezuela. It was painless. It was effortless. It was beautiful. You changed the regime.’ “Then he begins bombarding Trump with intelligence data showing that Iran had expanded its missile production and its missile-launching capabilities, and still has 450kg of highly enriched uranium,” Pinkas said. With the help of the Mossad director, David Barnea, Netanyahu portrayed the Tehran regime as an overripe fruit ready to drop from the branch. “He told Trump: ‘The Iranian economy is in shambles. The people are on the precipice of revolt. The Revolutionary Guards are losing control. Life in Iran is intolerable. This is our time,’” Pinkas said. “‘What we could do together is bring down the regime … think that together, jointly, we can win the war in three, four days.’” The US institutions that pushed back against this over-optimistic – and in fact deceiving – portrayal of reality were overruled by Trump and people around him such as Hegseth and Witkoff. But those institutions, which are more firmly grounded in hard-nosed assessments of the facts, will come back and eventually revolt against the “mad emperor” – and the forces that are influencing with ideas that run counter to US strategic national interests.

This will effectively mean a process to distance the US from Israel and to reign in the Israel Lobby inside the US. This dynamic is already underway. A group of Democrats in the US Congress have called on the State Department to break the US government’s longstanding silence on Israel’s nuclear capabilities, writes Al Jazeera. In the letter, dated May 4, the lawmakers plainly ask Rubio what nuclear weapon capabilities Israel has, as well as clear information on its warheads and launchers. “Congress has a constitutional responsibility to be fully informed about the nuclear balance in the Middle East, the risk of escalation by any party to this conflict, and the administration’s planning and contingencies for such scenarios,” the letter, signed by 30 members of Congress, said. “We do not believe we have received that information.”

In our 3W assessment, Israeli prime minister Netanyahu has realized this dynamic is underway. It is why, in our view, he told CBS’s 60 Minutes, “I want to draw down the American support for Israel to zero.” He added, “I think that it’s time that we weaned ourselves from the remaining military support and go from aid to partnership. I want to suggest projects, joint projects for intel, for weapons, for missile defense.” What Netanyahu is really trying to do, in our 3W view, is to achieve Israeli independence from the US before the US severely limits its support for Israel.

And this is the best sign that the US – Israel Alliance War on Iran is failing, and that as a result, the start of the process that will end with a breakup of the US – Israel Alliance has begun.