|
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...
|
Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In this roundup, we take a closer look at the Ukraine peace deal the US appears to have agreed with Russia.
The details of the deal are now clear. The 28-point plan would force Kyiv to give up additional territory in the east, cap the size of its military, and agree it will never join NATO, writes Axios. Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian territory. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the current line of contact. The document also says there would be a “decisive coordinated military response” in the event of further Russian incursions onto Ukrainian territory, which is effectively a security guarantee resembling the NATO Article 5 clause. It does not say what role the US would play in such a response. The plan also includes economic components that would see some frozen Russian assets go toward rebuilding Ukraine, sanctions on Russia lifted, the US and Russia agreeing to partner long-term in areas like AI and mining, and Russia returning to the G8. All parties would get amnesty for their actions during the war, presumably meaning Russian officials and soldiers could not be prosecuted for war crimes.
3W previously reported on the meetings between US special envoy Witkoff and Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev on the plan. writes now Axios that Witkoff then discussed the plan with Zelensky’s national security adviser, Rustem Umerov. US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll then presented the plan to Ukrainian prime minister Volodimir Zelensky on Thursday in writing. On Friday, Zelensky then had a phone call with US vice president JD Vance, Axios also writes. JD Vance delivered to Zelensky the message that Trump wants the deal signed before Thanksgiving in the US, this Thursday. This message, and the fact that it was not Trump but JD Vance who delivered it, in the 3W view is designed to make clear to Ukraine it is not given a choice. The US has already decided and Ukraine will now be forced to accept.
This assessment is confirmed by the news that Keith Kellog, the hawkish US special envoy to Ukraine, has announced his resignation. Politico writes he is leaving his post in January.
Europe is absolutely furious, writes Politico. Europe wants the war to go on, and in order to finance that has been discussing a loan program for Ukraine utilizing the Russian assets currently frozen in western banks. The US – Russia deal pushes this EU plan aside, leading some EU politicians to say that Witkoff needs a “psychiatrist”. Under the US plan the Russian assets will be unblocked, released and turned into an investment platform handled by Washington. Euronews writes that point 14 of the US – Russia deal says, “$100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine. The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Frozen European funds will be unfrozen.” The remainder of the frozen Russian funds, the text also reads, would “be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle that will implement joint projects in specific areas. This fund will be aimed at strengthening relations and increasing common interests to create a strong incentive not to return to conflict.” As a result, Moscow would secure a lucrative arrangement after the war it started. 3W notes that this not only pushes the Europeans aside, but also make a deal on their behalf with Russia. It is a complete humiliation of the EU by the US!
The 3W assessment of the development is as follows.
Firstly, reports from the field suggest that the fighting in Ukraine has intensified, the (Ukrainian) metrics are worsening and, that without big action, Ukraine could soon suffer a military defeat, writes Fareed Zakaria for The Washington Post.
Secondly, this battlefield reality is why the US has again done a U-turn on Ukraine, in our assessment. Trump appeared to agree with Putin after meeting him in Alaska earlier this year. But then he tightened sanctions on Russian oil, and got himself into a fight with India over its purchase of Russian oil, suggesting a US retrenchment back to the original Biden policy to use Ukraine to bleed both Russia and Europe. But in our 3W the reality is now such that this policy is simply not an option anymore, as Ukraine is on the verge of collapsing militarily. So, the US has decided to retreat by moving forward, giving Russia the deal Russia sought from the very beginning, one might even say since 2014. So the reality is that the current deal represents a complete victory for Russia.
Thirdly, by “retreating forward” the US is able to save face, and establish a deal that offers it some benefits, such as trade relations with Russia, including on rare earth minerals. This means the US is now back to the policy of aligning with Russia against China. Time will tell if Russia realizes this. If it does, it will keep some distance from the US and attempt to maintain relations with both the US and China. If it doesn’t, if it now believes American promises, blinded by money it will move quickly to enable the US to benefit from the Russian mineral wealth. In this scenario Russia will end up being exploited again. Because once the US has used Russia to deliver a fatal blow to China, the US will disregard its promises to Russia and proceed with moves to take it apart.
Fourthly, where does this leave the EU? Well, the EU thought that by giving the US everything it wanted under the Trade Deal, its interests would be secured. Now the EU has learned, again, how much an American promise is worth. The EU views have been ignored, and its interests sacrificed to serve America. This is the inevitable end of every American ally. As Henry Kissinger reportedly said, “It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.” The EU will now fall apart on the subject of Ukraine. Countries like Hungary and Slovenia that long objected to the EU stance in the Ukraine conflict will quickly use the US – Russia deal to ignore the EU sanctions. Countries like Spain and Italy, that do not agree with the view that Russia is a “threat” will use that to move away from the policy promoted by hawks such as Kallas. This will leave Germany isolated and alone. It will either be embarrassed, when it decides to change course. Or destroy itself economically if it tries to make Ukraine victorious by itself.
The above means that this development has the potential to end the European project all together.