Welcome to The Geopolity’s What We’re Watching (3W), where we will be our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Geopolitics, Economics and Energy. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, our analysis and commentary is designed to help you make sense of the events driving the major developments in the world.
In this roundup, we take a closer look at the Trump Peace Plan for Gaza.
It is by now clear how the plan was developed. White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner drafted the first version of the document based on earlier ceasefire proposals. They then discussed it with Ron Dermer, Israel’s national security advisor and a confidant of Israeli prime minister Netanyahu, who amended the text. This draft was then presented to leaders from the Arab and Muslims countries gathering at the UN, to get their support. After that, Witkoff and Kushner again met with Netanyahu and Dermer to further change the text. This adjusted text was then officially released to the media, writes Axios.
What this all means, in the 3W view, is the following.
Firstly, it obviously created confusion. The Arab mediators were talking among themselves, and to Hamas, on the basis of a document that was different from what the US – Israel Alliance considered the “final proposal”. Was this incompetence, or design on the part of the US – Israel Alliance? One can only speculate. But while we do not consider the competency of the Trump Administration very high, we doubt they are as incompetent as this. Hence, we suspect this was all done by design. Create a media storm that says the Arab and Muslims countries support the proposal, which effectively pushes them into a corner that is hard for them to get out from. Then create an adjusted proposal that Hamas needs to agree to, and if it refuses, it can then easily be painted as the “obstacle to peace”, which would justify a continuation of the Alliance’s military operation in Gaza.
Secondly, as to what was changed last minute by the US – Israel Alliance. The adjustments tied Israel’s withdrawal to the progress of disarming Hamas, and gave Israel a veto over the process. The edits also meant that even if all conditions are met and three phases of withdrawal are completed, Israeli forces will still remain within a security perimeter inside Gaza “until Gaza is properly secure from any resurgent terror threat,” which means indefinitely. Couple this with the fact that the proposal says Gaza will be governed by a Board headed by Trump, with Tony Blair being the chief executive officer, and you are left with a pure, hardcore, neo-colonial plan optima forma. Gaza will remain an “open air prison”, run as a colony, by colonialists, which means not for the interests of the local population but for the interests of the colonizers. An army will stand ready at the borders of the area to strike against anyone and anything that does not wholeheartedly submits to this state of affairs.
Nevertheless, Hamas appears willing to accept the Trump Peace Plan, writes the BBC. But, it is seeking further negotiation on other issues regarding the future of Gaza and the rights of Palestinians. The full text of the Hamas response can be read over at The National. The announcement came hours after US President Donald Trump gave Hamas a Sunday deadline to accept the peace plan or face “all hell”. 3W notes this all indicates things are developing pretty well in line with the design of the US – Israel Alliance as we set out above.
To enable progress, the US – Israel Alliance has slowed down military operations in Gaza, writes Axios. Witkoff and Kushner are now in Egypt to finalize the technical details of the peace deal. The National adds that Egypt will soon host a “national conference” on ending the war and setting a national framework for Gaza’s future and its administration.
Axios also writes that Netanyahu would have preferred to interpret Hamas’ “yes but” response to the Trump Peace Plan as a rejection, but that Trump overruled him. 3W notes that in our assessment Axios pushes the narrative that Trump is “the man in charge” a bit too much. We note that initially, it incorrectly presented the plan itself as something that Trump forced upon Netanyahu (see here), which clearly was not really the case. The Axios representation of the developments, designed to create the impression the US is (finally) forcing common sense upon the Israeli’s, and thereby in a way protects the interests of the Palestinians, is also undermined by The National which writes that at least 70 Palestinians, including two children, were killed in strikes hours after US president Trump so -called “ordered Israel” to halt the bombardment of Gaza.
So for now, at 3W we stick to our view that developments are going in line with the Alliance’s real plan, which is opening the doors toward and escalation of the Alliance’s pressure on Iran.
Lastly, 3W notes that Claire Magone, director general of Doctors Without Borders (MSF), in an interview with The National stated that based on her personal experiences on the ground in Gaza, the US – Israel Alliance’s war is a “loud and clear genocide” against Palestinians. She added, “As you know, the very plan of Israel regarding the West Bank and also Gaza could be called a genocide for decades.”