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An agreement appears to have been reached between US president Trump and Israeli prime minister Netanyahu on a ceasefire in Gaza. Netanyahu on Monday said he supports President Trump’s plan during a press conference at the White House, writes Axios. Both leaders said it was now up to Hamas to agree.
As to what is in the plan, according to Axios the key elements are the following. A permanent ceasefire. Release of all remaining Israeli prisoners of war within 48 hours of the ceasefire. A gradual Israeli withdrawal from all of the Gaza Strip following the ceasefire. No annexation or occupation of parts of Gaza by Israel, and no annexation of the West Bank. A post-war plan that includes a governing mechanism in Gaza without Hamas. Funding from Arab and Muslim countries for the new administration in Gaza, and for reconstruction and development of the enclave. A process of disarming Hamas and demilitarizing Gaza, which includes destroying all remaining heavy weapons and tunnels. A security force that would include Palestinians, but also soldiers from Arab and Muslim countries.
What Axios leaves out, The National informs of in its detailed analysis of the full text of the proposed agreement. The Israeli’s will be allowed to establish a buffer zone inside Gaza.
Bloomberg notes another clause in the ceasefire proposal that Axios did not stress. It is that Israel will receive full American support for a further escalation if Hamas does not accept the proposal. Consequently, Bloomberg writes, the proposal is in fact more like an ultimatum. (EPM notes that considering how the US – Israel Alliance has fought the war so far, not just with complete disregard for human life, but with a clear intent to cause civilian casualties and establish unbearable humanitarian conditions, it is hard to imagine how Israel could possibly escalate further, short of dropping a nuclear bomb on Gaza.)
Regarding this specific ceasefire proposal, EPM has previously said it is essentially the Hamas proposal. The only thing in it that was not previously proposed by Hamas is the point about disarming Hamas, which is something the group has so far rejected. All other key points – the immediate permanent ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, no occupation or annexation, no Hamas role in future governance of Gaza – were previously either accepted or proposed by Hamas. This raises the question, why does the US – Israel Alliance support this deal now, and not previously? At EPM we see four possible explanations:
The first is the most cynical. The Alliance is only agreeing to this now to reduce some of the international pressure, and to prevent the reputation of the Alliance members to suffer irreparable damage. But at some point in the not too distant future, it will find or create an excuse to resume execution of its plan to “temporarily” remove the people of Gaza from Gaza.
The second is that over the past 2 years the Alliance has achieved most of its aims in Gaza. Most of the area is now uninhabitable. Most of the people of Gaza have been forced out of their homes and concentrated in a tiny piece of land on the southern coast of the Strip. Agreeing to the ceasefire plan now, when most of the objectives of the Alliance’s genocidal plan for Gaza have been met, builds some goodwill in the international community. At some point in the future, an excuse to prevent the return of the people of Gaza will be found or created, such as for example “rebuilding” or “humanitarian” requirements, and that would mark the final step in the plan. But since this final step does not require war, now is an appropriate time for a ceasefire.
The third we at EPM see as the most unlikely. It is that the US finally decided to use its leverage over Israel and force Netanyahu to accept what so far he has sought to prevent. The US reason for this change in stance would in this case be a recognition that the War on Gaza has become too damaging to the US interests, including the demands it places on the US military and the destruction it causes of US soft power. At EPM we recognize this is possible, since it is logical. But because the Trump administration is staffed with hardcore Zionists, just as the US institutions that matter in this case such as the Pentagon and the State Department, we see this as very unlikely.
The fourth we at EPM see as the most worrisome. This option has to do with the fact that a number of other developments are taking place. One of these other developments is that the US has gathered all its senior military commanders. Hundreds of generals and admirals from around the world have been ordered to report to the Marine Corps base in Virginia, writes The Hill, which notes that no details have been shared about what the purpose of the meeting is. A the same time, another wave of US air tankers appear to be en route to Europe again, writes ZeroHedge, which notes that the last time this happened was ahead of the US – Israel Alliance’s attack on Iran. Taking all these developments together, it is very possible also that the US – Israel Alliance decided to halt its military operation in Gaza now because most if not all of its goals have been met, and it now wants to shift focus back to Iran. In this case the Gaza ceasefire agreement actually signals the coming of a key next step in the Alliance’s Plan for a New Levant, which is the destruction of the current Iranian state and its technological capabilities in the military and nuclear space.