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In this roundup, we take a closer look at the latest US ceasefire proposal for Gaza, which comes two weeks after Israel launched an unprovoked attack against Hamas in Qatar.
The plan was presented at a meeting attended by leaders and senior officials from Saudi Arabia, The United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Indonesia and Pakistan. The plan’s main principles are a permanent ceasefire; gradual Israeli withdrawal from all of the Gaza Strip; and a post-war plan that includes a governing mechanism in Gaza without Hamas.
EPM notes this is essentially what Hamas has been proposing for the past two years. It conflicts with what Israel has been demanding, as the Israeli’s only wanted a temporary ceasefire.
Consequently, it all means nothing has changed, because for the past two years the US could have used its leverage over Israel to force Tel Aviv to accept this deal, but it declined to do so. Will things now be different? We at EPM doubt it. Except, perhaps, if Israel first completes its objective of depopulating northern Gaza, at which time Trump can announce he brokered a ceasefire when in reality the US will have been shielding Israel and preventing a ceasefire until Israel achieved its genocidal objective in Gaza.
Furthermore, we look at:
- Why the US Shale industry is unhappy with US president Trump
- The Indonesia and Canada trade deal, which comes on the heels of Indonesia agreeing a trade deal with the European Union last week
- Southern Yemen’s offer of an Abraham Accord with Israel
- The sudden shift in Trump’s rhetoric regarding the Ukraine War; EPM believes this is a US ploy to play with the Europeans
- The New York Times’ confirmation that the real objective of the US naval operation in the Caribbean is not an end to drug trafficking, but rather regime change in Venezuela; the US’ objective and approach regarding Venezuela is upsetting Latin American diplomatic relations more holistically
- China’s new decarbonization target of 7-10% by 2035; EPM notes China is world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases from a “production perspective” AND the undisputed world leader when it comes to climate change mitigation
- Berkshire Hathaway’s divestment of BYD
- Ray Dalio’s general pessimism regarding the outlook for the United States on the macro-level
General Energy
US Shale is Unhappy with Trump
US Shale bosses told a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas that president Trump’s administration’s support for low prices, levies on crucial goods and chaotic decision-making is scaring off investors and increasing costs, writes The Financial Times. Respondents said they expected WTI to stay level at $63 a barrel by the end of the year, and $67 in 2027. However, in the near term executives said oversupply in the global market is constraining prices and impacting profitability and dividends, and expressed anxiety that Trump is aiming for lower prices.
Macroeconomics & Technology
Indonesian and Canadian Trade Deal
Indonesia and Canada agreed to a deal to lower trade barriers and ease investment procedures, writes Bloomberg, which calls it part of efforts by both nations to expand global economic ties in the wake of higher US tariffs. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney signed the pact, known as a comprehensive economic partnership agreement, at a meeting in Ottawa on Wednesday. The deal comes on the heels of Indonesia also agreeing a trade deal with the European Union last week.
Geopolitics
Gaza
Israeli airstrikes killed at least 50 people across the area on Wednesday, most of them in Gaza City when a strike hit a shelter for displaced families near a market, writes Reuters. Three children and nine women were among those killed, writes The Associated Press. In southern Gaza, at least 13 people were killed in Nuseirat and near Rafah. Meanwhile, Reuters and AP add, the US is very optimistic that a new ceasefire proposal will be accepted by both sides. At separate events, US secretary of state Marco Rubio and Trump’s lead negotiator Steve Witkoff both offered optimistic views about what Witkoff called a “Trump 21-point plan for peace” that was presented to Arab leaders on Tuesday. “We had a very productive session,” Witkoff said at a conference in New York. “I think it addresses Israeli concerns, as well as the concerns of all the neighbors in the region. And we’re hopeful, and I might say even confident, that in the coming days, we’ll be able to announce some sort of breakthrough.” EPM notes the US statements about ceasefire negotiations come across as ridiculous after Israel tried to kill the Hamas negotiators as recent as two weeks ago. Clearly, this proved that the entity that needs to be convinced, gently or forcefully, is not the Palestinians or the Arab states, but rather the rogue state of Israel.
Nevertheless, the plan garnered positive responses from the leaders in the Arab and broader Muslim world who attended its presentation, writes Axios. The meeting was attended by leaders and senior officials from Saudi Arabia, The United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Indonesia and Pakistan. The plan’s main principles are a permanent ceasefire; gradual Israeli withdrawal from all of the Gaza Strip; a post-war plan that includes a governing mechanism in Gaza without Hamas; a security force that would include Palestinians but also soldiers from Arab and Muslim countries; funding from Arab and Muslim countries for the new administration in Gaza and for reconstruction of the enclave; some involvement of the Palestinian Authority. EPM notes this is essentially what Hamas has been proposing for the past two years. It conflicts with what Israel has been demanding, as the Israeli’s only wanted a temporary ceasefire. Consequently, it all means nothing has changed, because for the past two years the US could have used its leverage over Israel to force Tel Aviv to accept this deal, but it declined to do so. Will things now be different? We at EPM doubt it. Except, perhaps, if Israel first completes its objective of depopulating northern Gaza, at which time Trump can announce he brokered a ceasefire when in reality the US will have been shielding Israel and preventing a ceasefire until Israel achieved its genocidal objective in Gaza.
US President Donald Trump had to promise the Arab and Muslim leaders that he will not allow Israel to annex the occupied West Bank, writes The Financial Times. EPM notes that for the past 2 years the US has quite clearly followed the Israeli vision and plans for the wider Middle East. It has not led, it has been led. Until we see any indication that this is changing, any statement from US leaders as to what it will do is meaningless. Because at the end of the day, Israel will convince the US decision-makers to follow the Israeli opinion.
Yemen
As to Yemen, a drone launched by the Houthi’s breached Israeli air defenses and struck the city of Eilat on Wednesday, injuring 22 people, writes The Associated Press.
A leader of the Yemeni forces controlling the south recently floated the idea of re-separating Northern and Southern Yemen as a step toward enabling an Abraham Accord between Israel and a future southern government. Aidarous Al Zubaidi, deputy chairman of Yemen’s Presidential Council, told The National in an interview: “Before the events in Gaza, we were advancing towards joining the Abraham Accords. When we have our southern state, we will make our own decisions, and I believe we will be part of these accords.” A drone launched by the Houthi’s breached Israeli air defenses and struck the city of Eilat on Wednesday, injuring 22 people, writes The Associated Press.
Ukraine
On Tuesday, US President Trump said that he believes Ukraine can “win” the war against Russia and take back all of the territory lost over the course of Moscow’s invasion, writes Axios. Trump posted the following to his social media account shortly after a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky:
After getting to know and fully understand the Ukraine/Russia Military and Economic situation and, after seeing the Economic trouble it is causing Russia, I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.
Trump went further and called Russia’s military “a paper tiger” and said that the people of Russia do not know the full extent of the economic destruction that President Vladimir Putin has caused: Putin and Russia are in BIG Economic trouble, and this is the time for Ukraine to act. We will continue to supply weapons to NATO for NATO to do what they want with them“. EPM agrees with Axios description of the comment: “an extraordinary 180-degree shift in his position on the war.” As recently as the Alaska Summit, Trump was in full agreement with Putin’s perspective of the war! What caused Trump’s shift when the “drums of war” are beating loudly on the European continent? The Europeans are pushing a narrative about Russia trying to “test” the European’s collective will through incursions of EU and NATO airspace. Trump’s statement seems to be egging them on, by giving the Europeans the impression of US support. We note, however, that there is no offer of real concrete US other than weapons sales. From our perspective, we interpret this to be part of the US’ strategy to use the war in Ukraine to weaken both Russia and Europe while making financial gains, then Trump’s most recent statement is a vindication of that view.
The preliminary EPM assessment of Trump’s new narrative on Ukraine is shared by Bloomberg as it increases the pressure on Europe more than on Russia. Trump did not offer any new US steps to support Kyiv, leaving that to its European allies. Trump’s social media post made no mention of tightened or new sanctions on Russia. EPM believes that Trump recently pushed the Europeans to move first by imposing additional secondary sanctions on Russian crude oil sales. When we put it all together, one can clearly see a concerted US effort to play on Europe’s weak mindset by compelling them to escalate, and the benefitting from the escalation financially while maintaining “plausible deniability” in front of China and India.
Venezuela
Several current and former military officials, diplomats and intelligence officers told The New York Times that while fighting drugs is the pretext for the recent US attacks offshore from the country, the real goal is to drive Venezuelan president Nicholas Maduro from power. Adm. James G. Stavridis, a former head of the Pentagon’s Southern Command, noted:
The massive naval flotilla off the coast of Venezuela and the movement of fifth-generation F-35 fighters to Puerto Rico has little to do with actual drug interdiction — they represent operational overkill. Rather, they are a clear signal to Nicolás Maduro that this administration is growing serious about accomplishing either regime or behavioral change from Caracas. Gunboat diplomacy is back, and it may well work.
This is what EPM concluded 2 weeks ago, when we first started covering the subject as a “developing crisis”.
The broader implications of the US ambition regarding Venezuela, and the way it is going about it, was on display at the most recent UN general assembly meeting where Colombian president Gustavo Petro called for a criminal investigation against US president Trump and other officials involved in the deadly strikes on boats in the Caribbean, writes The Associated Press. “Criminal proceedings must be opened against those officials, who are from the U.S., even if it includes the highest-ranking official who gave the order: President Trump,” Petro said of the strikes, adding that boat passengers were not members of the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang as claimed by the Trump administration after the first attack. EPM notes that Columbia is a traditional ally of the US in Latin America, akin to Japan in Asia Pacific and Germany in Europe. The comments by Colombia’s president therefore make clear that the US is again making enemies where it could and should be making friends
Climate Politics
China – Carbon Emissions and Reductions
Chinese president Xi Jinping has announced that his country will aim to cut emissions by 7% to 10% by 2035, writes The Associated Press. The announcement was made at the special leaders summit convened by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres during the UN General Assembly, to focus on specific plans to curb emissions from coal, oil and natural gas. In a video address, president Xi pledged that China would achieve its 2035 target by increasing its wind and solar power sixfold from 2020 levels, make pollution-free vehicles mainstream and “basically establish a climate adaptive society.” Europe then followed with a less detailed and not quite official new climate change fighting plan. EPM notes that this contrast between China and Europe proves that China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases from a “production perspective”, is also the undisputed world leader when it comes to decarbonization.
Reuters adds that president Xi urged stronger climate action from the world’s developed countries. He referred, though not by name, to the United States for moving away from the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change. “Green and low-carbon transformation is the trend of our times. Despite some countries going against the trend, the international community should stay on the right track, maintain unwavering confidence, unwavering action, and undiminished efforts,” Xi said. EPM notes this is very clever political positioning by China. Wherever the US diplomatically withdraws from platforms and subjects that a majority of the world cares about, China steps in.
Bloomberg notes that the Chinese target is actually easy to achieve for the country. Meeting the target for solar and wind capacity of over 3,600 GW by 2035 requires the addition of less than 200 GW of solar and wind per year, compared with 360 GW added in 2024 and significantly more expected this year. EVs, meanwhile, are already “mainstream”, accounting for more than half of new car sales this year. This means that the “updated target” is likely to be exceeded dramatically.
The Electrification of Transport
Buffett Unloads BYD
BYD was a relatively little-known Chinese electric vehicle maker in Shenzhen 17 years ago, when Berkshire Hathaway, the firm led by investment guru Warren Buffett, purchased a stake for about $230 million. On Monday BYD confirmed that Berkshire had fully off-loaded its holdings, a few years after the U.S. investor began to unwind the stake, writes Nikkei Asia. Berkshire had bought in at a price of 8 Hong Kong dollars per share. It disposed of most of the shares at over HK$200 before a recent 1:3 stock split, and the price stood at HK$113.5 last Friday, when word of the complete exit got out.
Other
Ray Dalio has reiterated his general pessimism regarding the outlook for the United States on the macro-level. While acknowledging its culture of entrepreneurship and innovation, he points to severe challenges, writes Fortune. The U.S. has a significant debt problem, and its internal political landscape is dangerously polarized by wealth and values gaps, putting democracy itself at risk. Furthermore, he argued that it’s in a “great power conflict” with China and its allies, and the two countries are locked in a technology war that will determine the future world order. “The winner of the technology war is going to win all wars,” Dalio stated, referencing historical precedents