The speed and extent of the regime’s collapse in Aleppo surprised everyone, even the rebels who for years have been trying to resist the siege imposed by Türkiye and the al-Assad regime. Surprisingly, what the combined might of the al-Assad army, Iranian and Iraqi militia, the Russian air force and thousands of Hezbollah fighters took almost 2 years to accomplish, a coalition of rebels accomplished in three days.[1] Rather than stand and fight, al-Asaad’s decrepit army abandoned their officers and fled after they were besieged, disarmed and released by opposition forces.
The fragility of al-Assad’s regime has been an open secret for almost 2 years and activists from a number of Islamic political organisations, armed factions and ordinary citizens have been urging Abu Muhammed Jolani the leader of HTS to resume offensive operations against the regime. According to Charles Lister, a Syria specialist, Türkiye’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan had so far blocked any planned offensive.[2] Under US pressure Erdogan has made no secret of his desire to see a settlement in Syria that includes and preserves the al-Assad regime creating a pretext which will then allow the compelled return of almost 3 million refugees currently residing in Türkiye back to Syria.
The distrust of Erdogan’s intentions centred around the use of delaying tactics in the light of an anticipated resolution of the Ukrainian conflict, which would free Russian airpower to pummel rebels into a capitulation, combined with months of protests calling for a renewed offensive exerted pressure on Jolani and the HTS’s leadership. When Israel carried out its notorious pager attack and killed Hezbollah’s chief Hassan Nasrallah, celebrations in Idlib were viewed with scorn in Shi’ah-dominated Lebanon and Syria, leading to the al-Assad regime to send reinforcements to prepare for an offensive against opposition-held areas. The quantity and quality of these re-enforcement laid bare the decrepit state of al-Assad’s forces, with the opinion that the Russians and the Iranians would do the fighting for them. But al-Assad’s corrupt and inept officers had sold his tanks for scrap and argued against the resumption of the offensive operation.
To assert that al-Assad’s regime was corrupt to the core does not elucidate the true nature of the regime, rather his regime was corrupt “from” the core. Al-Assad and his cronies from his cousins to his fellow tribesmen have gorged themselves with extortion, kidnapping, smuggling captagon and larceny that hollowed out what is left of state industries and institutions.
To assert that al-Assad’s regime was corrupt to the core does not elucidate the true nature of the regime, rather his regime was corrupt “from” the core
The living standards of the average Syrian and even al-Assad’s Allawi co-religionists have declined as rapidly as the Syrian pound, with a day’s wage less than a loaf of bread.[3] A soldier’s wage barely covers the expense of his cigarettes. Support for the regime even among its core Allawi base is vanishing. When this was all taking place the children of the displaced gathered in Idlib and trained for war.
The offensive so far has been spectacularly successful, capturing Syria’s largest, fourth largest, and the strategically important city of Homs. The response from regional governments has been muted. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and the UAE have broken with their policy of tacit support and have openly called for the preservation of the al-Asaad regime. Türkiye and specifically Erdogan, blamed al-Asaad’s intransigence, stating that he had held out the hand of friendship to al-Assad, who rebuffed any consolatory gestures, fearing the return of millions of antagonistic refugees.
Although the al-Assad regime cannot be written off just yet, as it has recovered from similar catastrophes, the means of recovery this time are minimal. Iran, fearing instability at home, has neither the financial nor military capacity to engage in a protracted campaign to protect the al-Assad regime. The deployment of IRGC personnel to Syria is difficult, it would leave them open to Israeli airpower, which would relish the opportunity to degrade Iranian capabilities without the need to enter Iranian airspace. Furthermore, Iran spent over $120 billion to prop up the al-Assad regime, most of which was financed by assets released by the US during its JCPOA agreement with Iran.[4] No such funds exist today. With a restive population, it can ill afford an extended campaign in Syria.
The response of Russia seems curious, it has not deployed its still significant presence against rebels in any militarily meaningful manner. True to its barbarous instincts, it launched sporadic attacks on hospitals and civilian targets across northern Syria, firing 5 Kalibr cruise missiles which failed to save Hama from capture. Fearing a Western trap Russia has decided to preserve its airpower for the more important Ukraine theatre of operations.
Israel, nervous about an actual belligerent Sunni state instead of the façade of resistance that the al-Assad regime constructed, has called upon regional and international powers to intervene and buttress the Assad regime. They are considering establishing a buffer zone in Southwest Syria and have carried out airstrikes to prevent strategic weapons from falling into the hands of rebels.[5]
The rebels are now the official opposition in Syria and they have morphed into a large and highly disciplined force. Without significant outside intervention, the writing is on the wall for the al-Assad criminal regime. If the rebel opposition can ignore the machinations of Erdogan, in his attempts to preserve as much of the regime as possible, the Arab Spring has the possibility of achieving its original aims of regime change.
1 Syrian rebels sweep into Aleppo, Russia conducts strikes in support of Assad | Reuters
2 Turkey says Syrian rebel assault near Aleppo is a ‘limited operation’ | Middle East Eye & Syrian rebels sweep into Aleppo, Russia conducts strikes in support of Assad | Reuters
3 Syria’s bread prices consume employees’ salaries and add new burdens on students – Enab Baladi
4 Fact Check: Did the US Under Obama Give Iran $150 Billion? – Newsweek
