8 Lessons We Have Learnt From 8 Months of War

On the 7th of June 2024 the Genocide in Gaza past its 8 month anniversary. The body count continues to pile up as Israeli credibility continues to hit rock bottom. The global order that was established to ensure such massacres never happened again by bringing the perpetrators to account has taken a severe knock. The supporters of Israel are struggling to justify their support as they lose the information war. After 8 months, there are eight strategic lessons we have learnt.  

Will Gaza become Israel’s Afghanistan? – The US invaded Afghanistan in 2001 and justified the invasion using the events of 9/11. Two decades later the US bled to death due to a domestic insurgency and the mission’s objective remained as confused amongst US policy makers as it did amongst US military personnel. Israeli leaders continue to argue their objective is to destroy and eliminate Hamas, but their actions are completely out of sync with this. Israel has conducted carpet bombings, massacres, torture and targeted hospitals, schools, places of worship and refugee camps. But despite this, after 8 months of fighting a people with no military capabilities and despite all the capabilities available to Israel, there is nothing Israel can hold up as a sign of victory. There has been no capture of Kabul moment or the toppling of Saddam Hussain statue moment. Serious questions have been raised by Israeli officials that victory in whatever guise can never be achieved in Gaza.

Despite the huge military force that Israel has exercised in Gaza, and despite the huge death toll of more than 37,000 Palestinians and the massive destruction of urban space all over the Gaza Strip, Hamas has not raised the white flag. It continues to fight and has regained effective civil control over many of the areas from which Israel has practically withdrawn. US and Israeli military officials have gone on record that Israel cannot achieve total victory in Gaza, with US President Joe Biden even openly arguing without a day after plan, Hamas will remain in Gaza. After 8 months of war, despite the death and destruction, Israeli leaders cannot point to anything that shows victory is at hand.

Israel is More Isolated Today than Ever Before – The Israeli narrative is the events of October 7th make them the victims and they are defending themselves. But the Israeli response to the events of October 7th is now firmly associated with the term genocide ever since South Africa took up the case before the ICJ, the International Court of Justice. Across western capitals protests, sit-ins and boycotts, have grown in size and scope as the people stand on the opposite side to their leaders and politicians who continue to defend Israeli actions.

Opinion polls all paint a picture of Israel losing support. In the US the majority of adults now disapprove of Israeli actions in Gaza, whilst the young, in the US according to Pew Research now sympathise more with the Palestinian people than the Israeli people. The recent announcement by Ireland, Norway and Spain of recognising Palestinian statehood is in line with public opinion, rather than against it. Western public opinion turning against Israel is significant as this is what long justified both the military and diplomatic support by western governments.

the Israeli response to the events of October 7th is now firmly associated with the term genocide

Western Leaders Struggle to Justify their support for Israel – Israeli actions in Gaza are beamed around the world daily and have horrified the public. Whilst the US president argues his country will always support Israel’s right to exist and defend itself, his press staff struggle to justify this in their daily press briefings. Journalists point out the contradictions in their statements and challenge them on the facts. Arguments such as Israel being the only democracy in the Middle East now make them look bad and many have now even stopped using the argument that Israel has the right to defend itself when it massacred over 37,000 people.

Israel in 8 months is looking more and more like a liability and making its supporters look even worse. Many of its defenders will need to decide if they want to go down with Israel and end up on the wrong side of history.

Israel’s Propaganda War Has Been a Complete Failure – Israel has spent billions over the decades in propaganda, lobbying and influence to create a favourable opinion about its settler agenda. In the West its supported politicians, Think Tanks, personalities and other causes to ensure it dominates opinion about Palestine. Mainstream media has for long been dominated by pro-Zionist voices that silenced any alternatives. But with many now viewing mainstream media as fake news and no longer referring to them as a source, many now use alternative media which has shown the world what Israel has been doing in the region.

Israeli officials, communication specialists and personalities came out in force after October 7th but one-by-one every argument was exposed from the events of October 7th being discredited to Israeli targeting of hospitals, civilians, places of worship and massacre of children and women. This one event has seen Israel’s decades of propaganda work go down the drain. The fundamental issue for Israel has been the fact that it’s trying to defend the indefensible and it doesn’t help when Israeli officials make genocidal calls and then try to deny that was what they meant.

The fundamental issue for Israel has been the fact that it’s trying to defend the indefensible

Divisions in Israel are Only Growing – For a nation that was attacked on October 7th it couldn’t be more divided. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was deeply unpopular prior to the events of October 7th and his actions since are seen by many to save his own skin rather than the hostages. The families of the hostages have openly criticised Netanyahu for not agreeing a hostage release deal with Hamas and on the night Israeli military units massacred hundreds to rescue their hostages, Israeli police arrested 33 people in Tel Aviv as demonstrators called for a hostage release deal. For many Israelis, international criticism and a lack of progress in freeing hostages is piling pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu. The departure of Benny Gantz from the war cabinet only confirms how divided Israel is.

Even the mood about the war strategy has changed within Israel. In an opinion poll published on Channel 11, a public broadcaster, a week before the invasion of Rafah, 47% of those asked supported an end to the war in Gaza in return for the release of the Israeli hostages, while only 32% were against. Even after the Israeli war cabinet unanimously rejected Hamas’s offer – the mainstream media described Hamas’s acceptance of the deal as fraudulent – 41% of those surveyed wanted Israel to accept it, while 44% were against it. It’s likely these division will only get worse the longer the war goes on

The Day After Plan – US president Joe Biden has long criticised Netanyahu for not having a day–after plan. When Netanyahu did come up with one it consisted of expelling the Gaza population into the desert and Israel controlling the Gaza Strip. This was rejected by the US who has since then provided a day after plan that consisted of a ceasefire and a range of options for governing Gaza, that reduces Israel’s role in the strip.

But what has been coming out of Tel Aviv has been worse than the Israeli propaganda war. On the one hand, growing voices say that the only way to bring back the hostages is to end the war, a demand that was taboo not so long ago. On the other hand, Netanyahu’s reluctance to accept any end to the war, claiming that the only way to bring back the hostages is through military pressure, in Rafah and elsewhere. The official reason given for the invasion of Rafah was to destroy the last Hamas battalions and to pressure it into accepting Israel’s terms for the release of the hostages. But many Israelis simply do not buy this explanation. Many believe that Netanyahu does not want to release the hostages and end the war because an end to the war would mean an end of his government.

Boiling Point in the Muslim World – The Muslim rulers in the Middle East and beyond have been exposed for being all talk and no action. For years they verbally supported Palestine but in their time of need Erdogan in Türkiye and the rulers in Tehran abandoned the people of Gaza. The Muslim rulers in Egypt and Jordan have been worried for months about the sentiments of their people and have resorted to arrests and clamp downs as their people come out in support of the people of Gaza. But the recent shooting near Rafah where two Egyptian soldiers were killed by Israeli soldiers is indicative of where the sentiments of the people in the region is.

Israel’s war in Gaza recently saw it take over the Gazan side of the Rafah crossing, which according to the 1973 agreement was meant to be maintained by Egypt. This loss led some Egyptian soldiers to open fire on Israeli forces in Rafah and the ensuing battle saw the death of two Egyptian soldiers. Both Israel and Egypt tried to downplay the event with Israel arguing it will investigate what took place and Egyptian authorities denying any soldiers died. One of the soldiers was given no mainstream media coverage in Egypt, but he got plenty of social media coverage. The second killed soldier got no media coverage but was given a hero’s burial in his village. The Egyptian authorities tried to maintain a media black-out as it can see the sentiment of the people is not in-line with the regime. What this act shows is the Muslim rulers and the people are on diametrically opposite sides when it comes to Palestine and its likely things will boil over as this war continues.

the Muslim rulers and the people are on diametrically opposite sides when it comes to Palestine and its likely things will boil over as this war continues

The Death-Nail of the Global Liberal Order – The global liberal order that the US and the West promoted for decades was already struggling before October 7th, but the actions of the West have now completely exposed to all the order is not worth the paper its rules are written on. The US had already undermined the global order with its actions in Iraq and Afghanistan when it openly trampled over it by creating a global torture network, abandoned the rule of law as well as international law.

But with Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza and South Africa taking the case to the ICJ, the West is now acting like the mafia against the very order it created and for long promoted. The US House of Representatives has voted to pass legislation that will sanction the International Criminal Court (ICC) after its prosecutor applied for arrest warrants against Israeli officials. A group of Republican US senators even sent a letter to International Criminal Court (ICC) Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan threatening his family! Whether it is the UN, the ICC or even the ICJ they are now labelled as antisemitic and being threatened for investigating and carrying out their job of investigating crimes against humanity. The West supported the court when it issued arrest warrants for Vladimir Putin, but the US has done the most to destroy and undermine the global order than any other person ever could.